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i've never made more money being wrong
in my analysis than i did this week
welcome back to another market analysis
video my name is matthew from the art of
trading
and i'll be your guide for today
first of all welcome to my new office uh
i've kicked out my girlfriend
and she's moved into another room so now
i have this room to myself and i'll be
converting it into a youtube studio
so i'm hoping to increase the quality of
these videos going forward but anyway
so let's start with cadano this week so
last week i was talking about how i was
taking profit around the 67 cent mark
as it seemed like 70 cents was likely to
act as resistance given we had this big
bearish red candle here which is a
classic reversal sign the rsi is heavily
overbought
on this four hour time frame and so i
scaled out a little bit of my position
here i took
just under 10 percent profit of my total
kadano position which i've been
accumulating since
uh below three or four u.s cents so it
was quite a bit of money for me to take
off the table
and even though i don't regret that
decision because it was part of my plan
all along
to sell a bit of kadano when we got
above 65 cents if i saw any selling
come in um i'm still very bullish on
kidano over the next couple of years so
i've retained
the majority of my position but i wanted
to take some money off the table to
cover my
initial risk and to reinvest elsewhere
as well there's a few other
opportunities i want to take advantage
of
and so i wanted to liquidate a little
bit of my position to move some money
around
but as you can see since doing that this
market has just continued higher and i
missed out on another 40
potential profit on the money i took off
the table
but that's okay that happens in trading
i'm used to it by now
and that's why i left the majority of my
position on the table
technical analysis is an extremely
powerful tool for identifying high
probability trading setups and managing
your risk
but there's one thing technical analysis
can't account for
and that is elon musk now i love elon
musk
but let's be honest he's a gigantic
troll
he's been wreaking more havoc in the
markets the past couple weeks than
any recent u.s president or any other
high profile figure
and just a couple of tweets were enough
to send bitcoin
through the 40k resistance level that i
was talking about last week so let's go
out to the daily chart
and i'll come back to kidano in a minute
but bitcoin obviously leads the entire
crypto market it's the biggest crypto it
has been
since forever it's the first crypto last
week i was saying that we had this
double top here
that was making me nervous so
we came up in the 40k had a big sell-off
and then as we came back up to retest it
after finding support on this 50 ema
and for our structure we rallied back up
to retest the highs but we failed to
close
beyond them this is a classic double top
projection
pattern the only thing that would have
made this pattern more
accurate would be waiting for a bearish
engulfing candle we didn't quite get
that instead we got a hammer candle you
can see that this candle closed in the
upper third
of its range that's a pretty bullish
sign
and then sure enough the next day we
completely obliterated this 41k
uh resistance on the news that elon musk
and tesla had invested 1.5 billion
into bitcoin which didn't move the
market itself
but it further legitimizes
cryptocurrencies as an
asset and that was extremely bullish and
we saw
large sums of money flow into bitcoin
that just took out this resistance zone
which is really good to see
that's what i meant at the start of this
video is i've never been more excited to
be wrong in my analysis
because i hold crypto bags just like
every other person
on earth it seems at the moment and uh
to see it get pumped
i'm all for it but that doesn't mean
that this is healthy price action
uh doesn't mean that this bullish trend
isn't getting a bit overextended to the
upside and doesn't mean you shouldn't be
cautious
in your crypto trading in the weeks and
months to come
the reason i was skeptical that we could
break through 40k
if we go all the way back to 2018
early 2018 all the way back here you can
see that
this was a similar situation where we
had an exponential run up
in bitcoin and we found resistance at
20k
we rolled over quite aggressively to
test this 50 ema
the only difference with this scenario
in hindsight
is this lower high so this time when
bitcoin tested
re-tested 40k resistance we actually got
back up to retest the high back in 2018
that was not the case we printed a lower
high and then we closed
below the 50 ema that's an extremely
bearish sign
and had i been more experienced back
then i probably wouldn't have
held on to my crypto positions so long
uh
during this massive correction so if we
go back to current price action
you'll notice that the main difference
here and what i was worried about
when i was doing my analysis last week
was this giant rejection week here i was
worried we were going to see a repeat
of 2020 and we're gonna see bitcoin fail
to make a
retest of the highs and roll over below
this 50 ema
and then we could have seen a sustained
correction back down to 20k
that's what i was expecting but then
elon musk
released the news and it was a low
profile release
he didn't intend to pump the market it
was just part of tesla's
regular financial statement release and
in that document they revealed that
they'd invested 1.5 billion into bitcoin
and as i just said earlier that just
further legitimizes the crypto markets
and we saw this massive pump straight
through uh this resistance zone so that
invalidates last week's
analysis and to be fair i did say that
last week i said if we get a close above
this high that invalidates my bearish
thesis altogether
and now things have changed and it's
unclear
just how high bitcoin is going to go
from here what i will say
is that we have a few structural levels
to reference to keep an eye on
the first one is this swing low on this
four hour time frame
at 44 000 roughly so this zone in here
if this zone breaks to the downside and
we get a daily candle close
let me move this back if we get a daily
candle close below this
44k level that's not good that
is not good for this bullish trend that
is a sign
that there's potential weakness coming
in and given how
volatile bitcoin and crypto in general
can be
if we get a break below this four hour
50 ema and this
previous structure support level there
could be a lot of selling
that comes into the market now that
being said we do have this previous
resistance zone here at 40k
this blue zone here that is extremely
likely to act as support
if we get back down to retest it so
bitcoin does break below this 44k level
that doesn't necessarily mean that this
bullish trend is over
it's just a sign that we could see
another period of consolidation you can
see that when we were trending above
this
four hour 50 ema it was acting as
support
and this market kept trading higher and
higher above it as soon as we got a
close below this four hour 50 ema
we ended a period of prolonged
consolidation
and so we need to be careful of that
again um
as bulls on bitcoin if we get a
four-hour close below this 4-hour 50 ema
and especially a daily close below this
44k level
we could see consolidation occur again
that doesn't mean we'll have a trend
reversal but it does mean that
we need to be cautious in how we manage
our positions
and it could lead to another buying
opportunity so these zones could make
for great buying opportunities if we see
the bulls hold those levels
things like double bottoms high volume
bullish candles around these zones would
be good signs that they're holding
so if bitcoin does break and close below
44k the next level
i'm watching is this 40k range so around
39k
to 41.5k if this zone doesn't hold
that's also not very good reason for
that is obviously that
previous resistance ought to turn into
support in a healthy strong
bullish trend so for example back here
in uh june of 2020
we started trending this this bullish
trend began
back in june 2020 when we broke above
this resistance level at 10k it became
support and push this market higher
so we should theoretically see that same
price action occur
if this bullish trend is intact and
going to last longer
so 40k is a very important structure
support level
if that fails our last line of defense
for this bullish trend
is this 50 ema on the daily chart
so this 50 ema has been acting as
support
on bitcoin on the daily chart and if we
do get that break
of these levels if this 50 ema does not
act as support and we break through it
that's not a good sign for the bullish
trend at that point
i would expect a prolonged correction
and it'll be interesting to see if 30k
does hold
in that scenario because if it doesn't
the next support level is 20k
and we do have four hour support around
24k in here
but this is not an important key level
20k is far more important
and if you've been trading for any
length of time then you know that
price action is drawn like magnets to
these key levels
so if any of these levels break uh the
next one is likely to attract price
action
so that's what i'm looking for on
bitcoin that's pretty much it that's my
analysis for bitcoin i am bullish
at the moment so long as we stay above
44k i'm expecting this trend to continue
how much higher who knows nobody knows i
would expect at least 50k
to be tested in the near future if we do
continue higher
that may act as resistance just because
it's a psychological number
like 40k was um but we'll have to wait
and see
that's it for bitcoin let's go back to
kidano really quickly and i'll just
finish up my analysis there
very unique fundamental situation there
are a lot of developments coming for
this project that are extremely
bullish my concern is that a lot of that
may be already priced in in the short
term
i believe there's a lot more price
growth a lot more value
growth to come in the bitcoin in the
bitcoin
uh in bitcoin as well but in the kadano
project i believe we're going to
crack through the previous all-time high
for kadano was around 130 140 u.s cents
i think it's there's no certainties in
trading
but i think there's a high extremely
high probability we're going to see
kaduna get back to 130 140
in this year certainly this year
there's also the potential that we blow
straight through that level with what's
coming
i'm not going to go into the technical
details of the kadano project you can go
and research that in your own time if
you want to because otherwise this video
is going to be far too long this is a
price action technical analysis video
not a fundamental analysis video
but in terms of price action we do have
some interesting developments
look at all these large wicks every time
this market tries to correct
the bulls push it up uh higher and
there's a few reasons for that from a
technical perspective we have
lower intraday time frame structure in
here
so we have this previous resistance
level here on this one hour chart that
once we got above it
began acting as support now we do have
lower highs coming in now which is
troubling
we could see a breakdown out of this
flag pattern that's forming
but even if we do we've got a decent
support level around 70 cents again on
this one hour time frame and even the
four hour time frame
we do have several moving averages we've
got the four hour
50 ema to test now that
often acts as support when we get above
it if we go back a bit here
you can see that when this market is
trending the 54 hours
uh ema can act as support doesn't always
but it can act as support once we get
above it so
if we do break lower that's the key
technical
level to watch and then we have 70 cents
beyond that
we don't have any structure on the daily
chart until back down at 40 cents so
that's troubling we also have this
50-day ema that could act as support
but if we do roll over from here in a
big way
there's there's really nothing to stop
this market heading all the way back
down here i don't expect that to happen
but it's certainly a possibility and
that's why i felt comfortable taking a
bit of profit off the table here
i've taken a little bit more profit up
here but i intend to buy back in
if we break these highs or if i get a
nice buying opportunity
if we do roll over to the downside so
the profit i took up here
um is not leaving kidano it's just
waiting to be reinvested in the kadanu
and that was only a few percent of my
positions so all in all i still have the
bulk of my kadano position for the long
term
and i'm not planning on selling anymore
until we see that growth
come in and we don't need to see much
growth come into this market
for us to see the price valuation
increased dramatically so this is a
really exciting crypto project to watch
um there are other ones that i could
cover as well but i'm not going to cover
them in this video
just because i don't i want to keep this
video short and we have other markets
here to cover but that's it for
i'm bullish i'm expecting this market to
break out to the upside
key levels to watch on this is around 86
cents
if we get a four hour close below that
uh watch this four hour 50 ema
if that does not act to support uh then
we're getting into dangerous territory
in terms of the bullish trend
we could see that daily time frame roll
over
but really so long as we stay above 70
cents
there's a high probability that this
market is going to rally even further to
the upside
so keep an eye on that if you're a
cardano trader or investor
so that's it for crypto let's move over
to 4x there's been some interesting
developments in forex um let's start
with euro dollar i'll turn off volume
because that's
not relevant for how i trade forex
so last week i was pointing out this key
potential support level
i was expecting this market to test
deeper into this support zone but we did
and we just uh
we just tapped it and ran reason i was
looking at this support level as a key
level is because it acted as
resistance many multiple times back in
2020
and it also acted as structure support
and resistance
many years ago so back here in 2018 we
had a support test
resistant test resistance test
consolidation there another resistance
test
very important level uh technical level
that traders are paying attention to
and sure enough we got down there we
just tagged it with the wick of this
candle
we got a nice bullish engulfing candle
there i actually missed this trade
unfortunately
sometimes that happens and trades just
they don't last long and they get away
from you before you can take advantage
of them
but i've got a couple of other trades
out of the forex markets that we'll go
over in a minute
but the way i would have traded this i
would have preferred a deeper test of
this zone
but this price action pattern in here is
a very good reversal pattern
we had the rsi oversold we had a nice
hammer candle here
followed by a bullish engulfing candle
higher high higher close
that's a classic bullish reversal
pattern and it's not occurring in the
middle of nowhere it's occurring
at the top of a key structure support
zone that can make for
fantastic swing trading opportunities
and uh
you know 180 yards stop loss would have
put your stop loss what's this around 25
pips we had an ati of around
around 25 pips at the time so about a 50
pip stop loss
uh you could have caught a nice three to
one
risk reward profile trading opportunity
out of this market
and on this four hour time frame we now
have a trend continue
potential trend continuation opportunity
unfolding we're back above this 50 day
ema that's what this stepped
line is that's the 50 day ema plotting
over my four hour chart
we have this four hour 50 ema coming up
in complements with it
we have this structure resistance level
that was support in the past
we've now reclaimed that level with this
nice one two three move
uh we've reclaimed this entire cell move
and that's pretty bullish so this is not
a terrible place
to go along anticipating that potential
daily
continuation to the upside and if that
happens
we have this sort of structure zone in
here to be cautious of
but the main key level would be up
around
123 would be a much more important
structure level according to my
experience and technical analysis
approach now i can change the color of
this zone to blue now
and so on bullish on euro dollar
technically we do
have a bearish trend here on this daily
chart
or a bearish beginnings of a trend we
have this one two three move with a
lower high
so we need to clear this level here
before we can call this a
a bona fide legitimate trend reversal
so keep that in mind this i would call
this a high risk
aggressive uh trading opportunity but if
you happen to be right
if we happen to be right and if i happen
to be right i'm not telling you how to
trade
but if i happen to be right on this
trading opportunity
there's a very nice risk reward profile
back
up to that potential structure
resistance level
if we do get that reversal so i'm paying
close attention to euro dollar going
into next week
ideally we want to see this market get
through
this previous resistance zone here
that began this one two three move so if
you're a conservative trader it would be
advised to wait
for that confirmation try and capture a
re-test of this zone or pull back
as we head back up to the structure zone
because there is the potential that this
bearish daily trend could continue from
here
but again i'm a mostly intraday trader
four-hour time frame one hour time frame
so that doesn't mean that there's not
opportunities within
this move back up to resistance so
that's what i'm paying attention to
going forward on euro dollar let's move
on to us
yen this was a great pair last week i
caught
a couple of trading opportunities here i
was pointing out this structure
resistance level
here that had acted as resistance
multiple times in the past on this daily
chart
and as support multiple times in the
past
we had this one two three trend reversal
pattern
so we're now in a potential bullish
trend and so this
short trade i took from this structure
zone was a counter trend trade
and so i was conservative with my
targets so let's go down to
it was a four hour time frame i took
this trade on so you can see the little
arrows here where i went short these are
i trade two positions in most of my
strategies
one position has a one-to-one profit
target so
for every dollar i risk my profit target
is equal amount
and then once that target is hit i roll
my stop loss down to
break even and i trail it below intraday
price action
until we get down into a support zone
and if i get a potential reversal
pattern
like a large bullish engulfing candle
for example i like to take my profit
there
so that's what happened here we got down
into this
structure support zone we just touched
the top of it
if i drag this up a bit to capture these
wicks
this is what i was looking at we got
this large bullish engulfing candle here
and so i reversed my position i took my
trade off here
uh down i watched on the on the one hour
time frame
uh as this level began to hold we had a
large
one hour candle here that retraced
several hours of price action
uh we broke up here we came back down
and we just sort of trickled lower here
and so i went long around here because
we had a nice
i had a nice entry on this four hour
trading opportunity
which allowed me to have a slightly
tighter stop loss
in relation to my entry and i managed to
hit my first target here
late last week on this trading
opportunity so this is a great
example of how you can take advantage of
structure based trading opportunities
from both directions so this was a
counter trend trade
where i was expecting a short pullback
from this zone before we continued
higher
we got a little bit deeper here back
down to this structure support zone
i've got a nice candlestick entry
pattern here that i like to trade
in my trading strategies i went long
i've hit my first target my stop loss is
at break even now and i'm just waiting
to see if this market can
continue higher back up to this
resistance zone and again if we get
a double top up here or some sort of
reversal pattern like this big
bearish engulfing candle i'll take my
profit off this position up there
to be as conservative as i was with this
counter trend trading opportunity where
i took my position off here
it'll take a little more than a bearish
engulfing candle for me to take my
position off up here
the only reason for that is because it's
a trend continuation trading opportunity
so i have the wind at my back i have
this
bullish daily trend potentially
unfolding which could see this market
continue much higher
and so there's a lot of meat left on
this move we could see this market come
all the way back up to these highs
if not these highs up here at this 107
roughly level so there's a lot of
potential risk reward on this trade
if this does pan out to be a trend
reversal situation a bullish
trend reversal situation so that's what
i'm looking for on us yen that's the
decisions trading decisions i made on
this market last week
let's move on to pound dollar pound
dollar did
break out of this resistance zone as i
was saying last week i was expecting
this zone to break
given the momentum uh of recent price
action
now the momentum in this trend has
fizzled out a bit
at this uh up into this zone you can see
that the candle ranges are getting
tighter and tighter
but that usually leads to a pretty
decent breakout
as price action expands it's like an
energy coil you know as energy
contracts it builds more and more force
and then when it does
explode it can explode dramatically now
which direction
it explodes is the difficult thing
to predict but because we had this large
wick
testing the support zone i was expecting
this market to break out to the upside
but just because i was expecting that
didn't mean there were any trading
opportunities for me to take advantage
on lower time frames
because there was nowhere to safely put
my stop loss in the middle of this
choppy range so what i was waiting for
was the breakout
and a retest of this structure support
zone so if i go back out to the daily
chart
and i color this zone blue you can see
that this zone
once broken has now acted as support and
pushed this market higher
now unfortunately i put this profit tool
in just to give me
a rough idea of what i'd be looking for
had this four hour candle closed as a
bullish engulfing kennel
i could have taken advantage of this
trade and
oh that's nice someone just sent me 500
trading view coins
uh what a legend thanks brock samson if
you're watching this video
i appreciate that mate um anyway i
couldn't take advantage of this trading
opportunity
because um i didn't get a price action
pattern that meets my strategy's rules
so i had to let this one go i couldn't
trade this
but on a intraday time frame there may
have been trading opportunities down
here
let's look at the 15 minute chart um not
really anything here that i would trade
we did have somewhat of a head and
shoulders pattern here if you look here
bullish engulfing candle that could have
been your right shoulder
left shoulder head right shoulder
waiting for a break of this neckline
could have caught a nice training
opportunity out of this
price action pattern here but i didn't i
don't trade head and shoulders patterns
yet i haven't finished back testing them
and so i couldn't take advantage of this
trading opportunity let's go to a five
hour
five minute time frame nice bullish
engulfing candle here
could have been a nice very nice
intraday trading opportunity if you're
trading these lower time frames these
structure levels make for great bounces
on intraday time frames that allow for
really nice tight
stop-loss entries so you can have a
large position size
with still minimal risk and capture
really nice moves out of the market so
that's the
best way to exploit these structure
zones
if you have the time and the expertise
to trade those lower time frames
so anyway that's it for pound dollar
couldn't take advantage of this trend
continuation re-test
unfortunately but there could be more
opportunities
in the week to come and if not
there's always the potential that we
could capture nice pullback
trading opportunities on intraday time
frames as we ride up to the next
structure resistance level
which is quite a ways away i'm looking
at this level here because it acted as
support in the past
multiple times and as resistance
many years ago but this is the next key
level i'm looking at it's all the way up
at 140
1.40 and so we have a lot of room here
to maneuver
on those intraday time frames so keep an
eye on pound dollar for trend
continuation options in the week to come
that is what i'm doing bullish on pound
dollar for the time being
until we get price action patterns that
prove otherwise like lower highs
and structure resistance levels being
broken to the downside so until that
begins to happen
it's no reason to be expecting this
market to suddenly turn bearish
let's move on to the next market pound
yen
uh bullish breakout of this resistance
level this was an interesting
zone there was a few trading
opportunities in this zone
i couldn't take advantage of them
because the pound yen is not currently
in my trading portfolio i haven't
finished back testing my strategies on
it yet
but there were some nice potential
trading opportunities in here we had
this bearish
flag pattern form here once we got a
break of that lower trend line
we did see a nice counter trend move in
here
that could have hit multiple targets on
this one hour time frame
and then eventually we did hold this
level
we had higher lows coming in higher
highs coming in
that is a hint that this market wants to
break
higher and that's what we got at the end
of last week we got a nice clean
breakout
of this structure resistance zone so now
i'm bullish on pound yen
i'd be stalking bullish trend
continuation trades
on intraday time frames expecting this
market to head higher
up towards the 146.1 level or structure
resistance zone
so that's it for pound yen let's quickly
move on aussie dollar
found support on this previous structure
resistance zone
if you're not sure why i picked all
these zones go back and watch last
week's video or the week before
where i pointed out these zones and why
i pointed them out but basically they've
just been tested as support and
resistance multiple times
we had this 50 day ema coming up in
confluence with it
really nice trend continuation
opportunity here
we have this bullish trend here that's
making higher highs and higher lows and
then we had this
prolonged pullback here that did not
break the previous swing low in trend
and then we had this 50 ema come up in
confluence with its previous resistance
level
really nice uh trend continuation
trading opportunity there now down here
on the four hour time frame we have this
nice clean double bottom in here
bullish engulfing candle great trading
opportunity and this week i've taken
advantage of a second trading
opportunity which was this bullish
engulfing candle swing low
after we've broken higher i'm expecting
trend continuation we did get that close
above this previous swing high
so we do have higher highs coming in
here higher lows
i'm expecting this to act as a higher
low and this market to continue higher
up into
that resistance zone up here around 77
uh nine so this is a zone i'll be paying
attention to
in the week to come and my profit target
is just above the swing high my one to
one target from
this entry so hopefully that'll get hit
this week
and i'll be able to get a nice
two-target winner out of this trading
opportunity but that's what i'm
expecting on this market
i'm expecting this key level to act as a
magnet
and we've already had this key level
push this market higher
uh it wouldn't take much to see this
market move just a little bit higher up
into this resistance zone
keep an eye on this in the week to come
it could be a nice counter trend
trading opportunity out of that 78 zone
on aussie
dollar so that's all i'm looking for on
aussie dollar let's move on to u.s cad
us cad not much to say here same as last
week
we are coming down to test this
structure support zone which will be
interesting
i am long on this market actually uh
i'll talk about this in another video
because
it's not relevant to this video but i've
been back testing a new trading strategy
on this daily time frame
so very low maintenance strategy i only
have to check the charts
once in the mornings to place my trades
manage my positions
and i got a training opportunity here
that meets my new strategies rules
with this hammer candle down at support
so i'm
long on this market my stop-loss is
below the swing low
my target is up here somewhere and so
if this does turn into a you know a
range
i should hit my target profit target on
that trade
and we'll wait and see what happens next
week but again not much to say about
this market except for
if you trade us cad this zone here is a
great zone to pay attention to
for potential
structure based trading opportunities
let's move on to the next market which
is us swiss franc great trading
opportunity here
we it's very similar to uscn we had this
one two three move
nice trading opportunity up here in this
resistance zone that i went over last
week
we rolled over from that zone back down
to test this structure support zone
and it does appear to be acting as
support
so again the reason i was expecting this
zone act as resistance is it's been
tested
multiple times as support we got up
there and we
rolled over pretty much instantly as
soon as we got up into this zone
so this is a very reliable approach to
technical analysis in identifying
structure zones the rsi went
literally overbought by
0.09 of the oscillator reading so we had
70.09 rsi
a great counter trend trading
opportunity up in the zone
if you trade structure strategies
and likewise we now have another
potential
structure based trading opportunity down
at this 89
cent zone and last week we got a really
nice
double bottom trading opportunity in
here so price action trickled down here
we made a low came up made this high up
here
came back down to retest the low failed
to break below it
bullish engulfing candle great entry one
to one target
already hit and this is a great trading
opportunity to trail your stop loss on
if you're involved in this
structure-based trading opportunity
so that's it for us swiss franc i am
expecting this market to continue higher
this week just because we had this one
two three move with a higher low and a
higher high
if we get back down to these lows and we
get below them
then that invalidates my bullish thesis
and i will no longer be stalking
long trades on this market so that's
what i'm looking for on u.s swiss franc
let's move on to new zealand dollar new
zealand dollar nothing to say
here same as last week we are in
consolidation
uh we're between two structure levels we
are in a bullish trend
so we didn't close below this swing low
in here
we rallied up uh until we break and
close below this zone in here
and this 50-day ema i'm expecting this
range to continue sideways and
eventually break out to the upside it's
more likely to break out to the upside
or
re-test these highs at least than it is
to get below this swing low anytime soon
but we'll have to wait and see what
happens there obviously this is not a
perfect
science but probabilistically speaking
statistically speaking this market has a
higher probability of
moving up then it does moving down into
a
reversal now the first hint
that a reversal may be coming would be
price action trading below this 50 day
ema which it hasn't done for quite some
time so if we do get a one two three
move
below this 50 ema with a lower high if
we get a weak bounce
out of this structure support zone and
then some bearish price action coming in
uh that could be a sign that this market
is going to roll over so keep an eye on
that if you're trading new zealand
dollar
but otherwise we're pretty much in a
range this is a great time
to be looking for potential advanced
patterns so
here was a nice consolidation pattern so
we're on the one hour timeframe here on
new zealand dollar
we're going sideways between two
structure levels this is a great time to
be looking for advanced patterns like
a bat pattern so here i'm looking at an
x to a leg
i'm waiting for that 50 percent
retracement to be hit but i
don't want the 618 to be hit so that
occurred here
then we rolled over to make our x to a a
to b
b to c and then we had a c d completion
at the 786
and then the market rolled over so this
pattern would look something like this
x to a a to b b to c
c d completion up at the 786
you would have a limit order set at the
786 one atr stop loss
above this high would be around a 30 pip
stop loss
and you'd be taking your targets at
around a 382 retracement
of that level and that gives you an
inverse risk reward profile
on this trading opportunity so i
wouldn't be able to take this trading
opportunity personally but there is a
potential quite often
in these structure consolidation periods
where the market's going sideways and
it's all choppy
there are trading opportunities in here
using these advanced patterns these
fibonacci
harmonic sequences to capture really
nice
trading opportunities so if you're not
sure what that is if you're not sure
what advanced patterns are
search them on youtube there's a lot of
instructions instructional videos out
there
it's a whole rabbit hole of
trading mysticism it's really it's quite
fun to learn
it's not as difficult as it sounds very
rules based
so you either have a pattern or you
don't and these patterns can have
extremely high win rates up to 70
percent
um on some of those patterns especially
the ones with inverse risk reward
profiles
but i don't like to trade inverse risk
reward profiles because that means that
you need a
a greater than 50 win rate to make money
on them
and that's just too much pressure for me
quite frankly
i'd prefer a trading strategy where i
only need to win 40 of the time
with a 2 1 average risk reward to make
money that's
my preferred way of trading and i can
relax a little more
when i hit those losing streaks but
anyway that's
a rant for another day let's wrap this
video up really quickly
gold is now in a bearish
situation uh we're consolidating between
these
two structure zones but we are making
lower
highs and lower lows so that's bearish
to me um
we're not in a bearish trend here but we
are
potentially heading lower so i have to
wait and see what happens i'm expecting
this market to retest this swing low in
here
deeper than it did last week i
ideally i'd expect this
the bodies in here to be tested
in the weeks or months to come if not
that's great for gold
if we get a break above this 50 day ema
and the swing high
especially these swing highs then that
could be
an interesting sign for this market we
could be heading back up to the
structure resistance up here
which could provide for some nice
trading opportunities intraday trading
opportunities
but otherwise so long as we stay below
this 50 day ema and we continue printing
lower highs and lower lows
this market should be considered bearish
and the only place i'd be looking for
long trades is if we get
some nice counter trend price action
patterns down around the bodies
of this structure support zone so that's
what i'm looking for on gold
s p 500 broke out last week above the
structure resistance level after finding
support on this 50-day
ema and previous resistance
turn support so this market acted as
resistance
we got above it and then it acted as
support
this 50-day ema came up and came up in
confluence
with that structure support zone so i'm
talking really quickly here because i'm
trying to wrap up this video there
i don't want it to be too long and then
we
rocketed from this support zone broke
the highs we're in the new highs
you don't need me to tell you that this
is a bullish market so
be stalking long trades on this market
so long as we stay above the swing low
and this four hour 50 ema
there's the sky's the limit we're in
blue sky territory on this
s p 500 so there's really no telling how
much higher could go
so bullish on s p 500 if you're already
long on this market
this would be good place to trail your
stop loss below swing lows as we make
them
and if you're short on this market
you're crazy i would
if you don't have a stop loss or you're
not following a strategy
to get you out of this market if it does
continue higher you're in big trouble
and i'd be covering your positions as
soon as possible um
this is not a bearish market should be
theoretically given the fundamentals and
covert and the global
shutdowns in american shutdowns but
price action leads the way that's why
i'm a technical trader not a fundamental
trader
if price action is making higher lows
and higher highs
i'm bullish i'm trading it to the upside
it's that simple
and that's it for this market let's look
at aussie 200 real quick i said last
week that i went long after this break
out of this swing high
it's a very very weak breakout but a
breakout nonetheless
i felt comfortable adding to my
australian
200 asx etf holding
and um since then it's just going
sideways
but we do have a lot of wicks here price
action is struggling to get below this
level
so i'm expecting this to continue higher
next week
if it doesn't um well i'll cover that
next week if we get below this 50 ema
then these lows will be a key level to
watch
otherwise the previous swing highs
through here
could make for an interesting structure
support level so keep an eye on that if
you're an aussie
stock market investor and that brings me
to the end of today's video i hope you
found that interesting
and i'll see in the next one i'm not
going to cover the economic calendar
this week because there is
bugger all on pardon my australian
lingo there's nothing on uh the market's
going to be quiet this week yet again
from a fundamental perspective so good
luck this week good luck with your
trading
thanks for watching uh if you have any
suggestions leave them in the comment
section i read all the comments on all
my videos
and i will see you in the next video
take care good luck