FOREX MARKET ANALYSIS - 1st June 2020 What A Week!

hey traders welcome to this week's
market analysis my name is matthew from
zen and the art of trading and today i'm
gonna be breaking down the euro dollar
dollar yen pound dollar Aussie dollar
and dollar Canadian mark has played out
really interesting according to last
week's market analysis and I'm excited
to break down this week's charts show
you what I'm seeing so first of all here
on euro dollar we were trading in this
really clean tight range you know
between 110 and 107 eight but last week
we've got this really nice breakout to
the upside out of this range you can see
I did take a trade on this pair last
week I went short up to this sort of
high wycked
engulfing candle bearish engulfing
candle at the top of the range and I got
stopped out for a small loss there I'll
just turn on my and here I just logged
into my brokerage account so you can see
my order executions on here so you can
tell that I'm not lying I did go short
here on this next bar after the signal
the engulfing candle and then I got
stopped out pretty much immediately for
a small loss but no big deal
and now my bias has changed so if we go
back out to the daily chart we are now
in a bullish breakout and my bias is now
bullish on this pair so this is a good
pair to be stalking trend continuation
Long's because we now have a bullish
move here we have this impulsive move up
into the higher the range I pull back
into this 50 EMA and then a breakout
that makes this a one-two-three move and
so my bias is now bullish and I can
change the color of this to blue because
there's now going to be a potential
support zone structure supports weren't
a very nice one at that so we're now
testing this little minor swing high in
here if price does respond bearishly
from here get a lot of profit taking and
some short selling stepping in and this
market pulls back down into the
structure zone it could make for a great
potential that structure based trading
opportunity on those lower timeframes so
keep an eye on that this week and that's
all I'm seeing on your $1.00 obviously
if we get up into these highs here this
is a structure level that I'm paying
attention to it's being tested as
resistance multiple times and a support
multiple
time so this 112 even handle number is
definitely a level to pay attention to
if we do not get any bearish price
action in the week to come so that's it
for euro dollar let's move on to the
next pair which is dollar yen now this
was a pair that I also took a trading
opportunity on and what I was looking at
here last week was that we had this one
two three move this bearish move and
then price had pulled back up into this
kind of structure shelf area and so this
was a little swing high in here and we
had this 50 EMA in confluence with it
this 108 even handled number and when
price got up into this structures earned
down on this 4-hour chart
I got a nice clean double top in here as
you can see price came up to touch this
previous high and so I took a counter
trend trading opportunity heeled my
stop-loss above these initial swing high
which put it out of this resistance urn
and price rolled over to hit the take
profit order I didn't take this on my
main account I took this on a second
account that's why there's no order
markers on here because I just had too
much exposure on this on my main trading
account I had nearly eight nine trades
last week maybe 10 trades and so it took
this on a smaller account that I use for
mostly discretionary trading but anyway
that's a win is a win and I was happy
about that and just goes to show the
importance and power of these structures
owns and so now for this week on Dalian
I'm still expecting some bearish price
action out of the zone until we get a
break and close out of this zone and
above this 108 even handle number I'm
expecting this market to roll over to
the downside potentially to retest these
lows down here you can see we've already
tested these structures our initials
another this was another structure zone
I was paying attention to and when price
did roll over we got a pretty much
bullish immediate bullish reaction out
of there so that was interesting to note
and then of course stopped me out for
breakeven on my second position but
that's alright a small win is a still a
win and so now what are my market
conditions we still have a bearish trend
until we get that follow-through on this
pair until we get that breaking close
out of this consolidation range to the
upside I still consider this a bearish
trend until we breaking close above this
swing high in here I'm not really
looking for any long trades and if price
comes down to retest these lows that
could be a potential zone to look for
double bottoms or pin Hema candles that
sort of thing and so my conditions and
buyers haven't changed here I'm still
bearish on this pair going into this
week unless we get a breaking close
above 108 even and then my bias will
shift to the upside so that's it for
dollar yen let's move on to the next
pair which is British Pound and this was
another pair of took your trading
opportunity on last week based on
structure so here this has changed now
but I'll go over this in a second what I
was looking at last week was we had this
one two three move which put me in
changed my bias to bearish and I was
expecting trend continuation lower from
this pullback here and what happened was
price came up into the previous swing
low of this 1 2 3 move and then we did
get a bearish reaction out of there and
then we got one more move back up into
this range and this technically shifts
my trend bias to bullish because we have
this 1 2 3 move and a break above this
high but because this was such a major
structure zone and we had this this
initial 1 2 3 move that broke out of
this longer-term consolidation my bias
was still short still bearish until we
got out of this structure zone and so
when we got a trading but another double
top up in here similar to dollar yen
where we had this initial high and then
we rolled over and then we came back up
to retest this high I believe we also
got our aside divergence on the retest
yep so we went over bought on the
initial test and then on the second test
we had this bearish large bearish
engulfing candle and our aside
divergence so I went short I didn't see
this setup until this next big green
candle and so I went short at the high
of this double top and my stop-loss was
180 are above the initial swing high and
I nearly got stopped out I got very very
close to being stopped out four pips
away from being stopped out but I was
asleep when this trade was playing out
thank goodness because that would have
been pretty
stressful to watch considering I've
being in a really bad losing streak the
past month or two but this week really
did break that streak for me and I had I
think I had seven or eight winning
trades in only two or three losses so
this was a really great week for my
trading and you can see that my profit
target was hit on this on this candle
the same candle that nearly stopped me
out also came down and hit my target and
then we did roll back up and stop me out
for breakeven and now the markets
breaking out to the upside so that means
that my bias is shifting to potential
bullish reversal and my bias is bullish
especially if this daily candle closes
up here this daily candle is rejected
back down into the range then that will
change my bias back to bearish but it's
looking pretty strong right now looking
like this breakout is going to be
sustained we already have the hourly
closed up and out of this range so we
may get a retest back down into this
structure zone but my bias is bullish
now that we've had this breakout above
the 50 EMA and we've had this 1 2 3 move
let me delete some of these lines really
quickly clean up the chart a bit we had
this 1 2 3 move that is broken out of
this previous swing low and this little
resistance zone and the 50 EMA that's
changed my bias to bullish on this pair
so that's it for pound dollar let's move
on to Aussie dollar now this was a
trading pair that I had a fantastic week
on last week I took three trades on this
pair and all three of them won and I'm
still involved in a long trade here that
during this our breakout which is great
so I'll just explain what I was seeing
here and why I was looking for this
initial long trade so if you remember
from last week I mentioned that we were
in a bullish trend we're making higher
highs and higher lows and then we had
this little breakout here that broke and
closed above this swing high putting us
in the trend continuation and so I began
looking for long trades on this little
shallow pullback that came in here this
two-day pullback and this pullback came
back down into this little structure
zone down here this little shelf and on
Friday I actually got a bullish
engulfing candle signal from my ultimate
pullback indicator
this for our 50 EMA this signal here and
of course I was asleep when the signal
printed but when I woke up on Saturday
Saturday morning I saw this signal here
and I decided to put in a lemon order to
try and get filled on this signal as
soon as the market opened on Monday you
can see I have a bullish signal here and
so I'm long well I'm waiting GB filled
on my long order down at the close of
this candle stop-loss 180 I blow the
lowest target first target here second
target all the way up in this red zone
but this signal happened really that's
happened at 3:00 a.m. on Friday or
Saturday morning for me so I certainly
wasn't up from trading at 3:00 a.m. on a
Saturday so I missed this signal and so
now I've got a limit order waiting at
this close hoping that price suppressed
nearly filled me this morning but not
quite hopefully before price hits my
target price will roll over to fill me
on my order down here and this is a
great long trading opportunity and sure
enough when the market opened Monday we
had a little dip which filled me on my
order and then the market took off and
it hit my first target without any
trouble you can see the order symbols
here I was filled on my initial profit
target on this candle here at a
one-to-one wrist reward and then the
market came up into a major structure
resistance level and putting this high
waked shooting star candle followed by a
bearish engulfing candle so if I go out
to the daily chart I'll show you why I
was paying attention to this level if
you look right here this is the most
major swing high before this very
impulsive move lower and so I knew it
was going to be a major structural level
and his price came back up to test that
level we got that shooting star candle
followed by a bearish engulfing candle
which is and and the RSI was overboard
as you can see down here and so that was
a great indication to me that this
market was potentially going to roll
over from this zone and so I decided to
take my second target off at the close
of this candle making this a three point
one percent trade because I'd trade one
percent per position and I had two
positions on so I made three percent on
this initial trade and then I reversed
my position after this counter trend
signal here
counter-trend set up and I went short on
this little pullback on this next candle
stop-loss above the structure zone
initial target at one to one and I was
actually filled on that target to pretty
pretty quickly so that made two winning
trades in a row on this pair which was
really exciting but then what's better
than winning two trades in a row winning
three of course and that's what happened
here so once we came down to retest this
previous high in this trending move
we actually got another bullish
engulfing candle signal here as you can
see by this little green arrow symbol
and this occurred above the 50 EMA after
a trend continuation move even though we
did test structure and rolled over from
here the trend is still bullish the
momentum is still to the upside and we
came in to retest this previous swing
high and couldn't really break and close
below it we had this bullish rejection
out of this swing high and so when I saw
this I decided to take off my second
position of this counter trend trade
because given the nature of counter
trend trades I'm more conservative with
those targets than with trend
continuation targets and so I was happy
to take off my position here for a one
point one risk reward on my second
target so I made another two point one
percent on this trade here and then I
reversed my position again based on this
bullish engulfing candle set up on this
swing high stop-loss below the swing low
one ATR right here and then that target
got hit pretty quickly as well and then
since then the market has now broken out
to the upside and I'm sitting on about a
two to one risk reward on that second
position as well so this was a fantastic
trading pair last week to trade it
respected structure really well and it's
also respecting this trend this bullish
trend is still intact
so very interesting to see on Australian
dollar and very very happy with that
it's very unusual to win that many
trades on a single pair in a week
especially on a 4-hour chart I don't
think I've ever had that happen actually
and this has really broken my losing
streak I've come out of one of the worst
losing streaks I've ever had in my
trading and going into one of the best
winning streaks I've ever had in my
trading so that just goes to show
the importance of perseverance and
consistency and to sticking to the plan
and trusting your back testing results
trusting yourself to just let your
system do what it what it needs to do
and I didn't interfere here it was hard
to keep taking keep flipping my position
but my rules are my rules I followed
them and paid off this week so this was
a great trading week this week and the
market analysis played out perfectly so
now if this candle closes above this
structure zone this will become a
support zone for me and if we do get a
pullback back into this zone it could
make for a great structure trend
continuation zone to trade continuation
of this trend to the upside so keep an
eye on that this week I'm already long
on this pair so unless I get stopped out
for breakeven on my second target I'll
just be trailing my stop-loss on that
second position as this market breaks
out and the next structural level I'll
be paying attention to to potentially
take profits will be up in here
conservatively speaking the reason for
that is that this level up here has been
tested as resistance twice and support a
couple of times all the way back in here
and so that's a level I'll be paying
attention to if we get a bearish double
top or another setup like this I'll
consider taking my second target off up
there otherwise I'll just hold on to the
position and I'll trail my stop-loss
below swing lows on the 4-hour chart or
even the one-hour chart if this market
does not give me any structure on the
4-hour chart to trail below so that's it
for the Australian dollar my bias has
not changed the trend is still bullish
my bias is still bullish and until we
get a breaking close below this swing
low or we get a major rejection from one
of these structure levels my bias is
remaining bullish so let's move on to
the final pair which is dollar Canadian
this was another great pair from last
week you can see my the analysis from
last week to the downside is playing out
really nicely I said here break below
this consolidation low would mean it'd
be great opportunity to look for short
setups
and that appears to be playing up
so I can now delete this upper thesis
this breakout to the upside thesis
because that's no longer on the cards
for broken out to the downside and
ironically rather than taking a short
trade and when this breakout happened
actually took a long trade a
counter-trend long trade and I won that
trade as well so I'll just explain why I
went long after this breakout and what
my reasoning was behind that so if i
zoom the chart right out and we go all
the way back to 2017 you can see this US
may just swing high in here this
structure swing high and I've drawn my
blue line in there so if I reset the
chart and zoom in here we drop down to
the 4-hour chart which is where I took
this trade you can see that we had this
large bullish engulfing candle right on
this structure level and again if I
throw the RSI on we were heavily
oversold on this four hour time frame
when the signal occurred so first
actually I actually went short here
first on this 15-minute chart I had a
short where is it here we had this break
below this structure level and then a
bearish engulfing candle this was
another strategy that I like to trade
intraday when the market conditions are
right for this strategy and they were in
this case but I did take a loss on this
trade so I went short on this 15-minute
bearish engulfing candle after we were
trending to the downside momentum was
pretty strong but then I got stopped out
and price began consolidating so that's
when I went out to the 4-hour chart and
started just paying attention to what
was going on around this structure level
and noticed that the candle I got
stopped out on turned out to be a large
bullish Hema candle and so on this next
candle that pulled right back down to
the low of this bar I was comfortable
going long here because my risk reward
was very very nice it was my target was
before the bodies of this little
consolidation swing in here so I was
pretty confident that I could hit that
target before this market went into
trend continuation lower and I was also
expecting the market to come up and
retest this structure zone from the
downside before we rolled over we didn't
quite get that we go
close but not quite we've got about 20
pips away from testing that structure
zone and now we're rolling over to the
downside but I got a nice one target
winner out of that of course I've
stopped out for breakeven on my second
target pretty quickly after that but
that's okay that's the nature of kind of
most counter-trend setups but I was
happy to get a nice little cheeky win on
this trade we also had this a large
hammer candle and kind of a very weak
double bottom in here where we made this
initial low had a rally and then came
back down without breaking and closing
below the low and then we got this big
engulfing candle so that's why I went
long here with a conservative target 33
pips I was hit without much trouble and
then the market is now since rolled over
so now if I go out to the daily chart I
can change the structure level to red
because it's now likely to act as a
structural resistance level same with
this level in here since we have that
little bounce off here this little minor
structural level in here could make for
a great pullback zone
if this for our candle does close down
here on these lower timeframes like a
one-hour chart or even a 15-minute chart
it may provide for a great trend
continuation opportunity if we get a
pullback back up into this zone and a
double top or something like that it
could make for a great short trading
opportunity for intraday traders even
this Zone in here could potentially act
as resistance on these lower timeframes
but I'd be more interested in the 4-hour
lows for this week so my bias on this
pair has now shifted to bearish and the
market condition we're in now is a
bearish trend reason for that is we've
got lower highs and lower lows if I
delete some of these lines and clean up
this chart and I'll get rid of the text
on here as well clean that up a bit we
have this first move down I pull back up
into there then we had a breaking close
below this low and then we had a lower
high pull back then we did this sort of
wedging pattern here with lower highs
lower highs look at these highs coming
in lower and lower and then we had the
breakdown
no surprise there and so now I can I
would class this as a bearish trend now
that we've had this bearish
follow-through especially this day
closes below
the lows of these two candles in here
then we'll have a confirmed bearish
trend on this pair so that's what I'm
looking at on dollar Canadian and before
I end my analysis on dollar Canadian I
should point out the next support level
I'll be paying attention to if this move
to the downside continues and that is
pretty easy to spot it'll be this swing
high in here so put in a horizontal line
there and this is more of a zone as
always so I'll just draw that out there
and there we have it so if this move
continues to the downside this would be
the structure zone I'd be paying
attention to next and that's about it
for this market analysis I did take a
bunch of trades on some other pairs such
as Ozzie new zealand we had a nice
little structure trade in here i went
long at this double bottom down here so
we had this nice clean double bottom
down here i went longer the close of
this bullish engulfing candle with a 180
i stopped and i hit my target on this
this morning when the market opened and
I'm writing this market to the upside I
also had a nice winning trade on Europe
Canada which was also a structure trade
went long from down a structure that hit
targets what else was there there was
panel in New Zealand that hit targets
another structure trade kind of trench
structure trade which was a one-hour
double bottom actually we had this one
hour double bottom down here bullish
engulfing candle after a retest of the
lows I went long there hit my target and
I also caught a nice bearish counter
trend trade on Canadian yen figure out
to the daily chart we had this nice
clean structure resistance level here
had been tested twice recently price
came up to tested again and I got a
Parrish engulfing candle Ashley was
entered on this green candle after this
bearish engulfing candle here so I got a
late entry on this one and a better risk
reward and sure enough price did respond
from the structure level and we rolled
it hit my targets bed of course then I
was stopped out for breakeven on this
bar here this morning no big deal nice
little one target winner there
to add to the list and I also had a nice
little intraday counter trend trade here
on euro yen you see this daily structure
level up here I was paying attention to
his price pulled up into there if I drop
down to the 15-minute chart you can see
why I was looking at this level we had a
very nice clean double top here where
price failed to breaking close above
this swing high and then we got a
bearish engulfing candle we had our side
divergence yet again especially on the
one-hour chart and so I went short here
with one position at one point for
risk/reward target as I mentioned
earlier I like to be conservative with
my counter trend targets and that turned
out to be a really good idea because I
got filled on my profit order by the
spread and then this market reversed and
would have stopped me out for breakeven
so a really nice little counter trend
trade there as well and then of course
this market did continue trending to the
upside so that was a nice trade and I
was really happy with that there are a
couple of other trades that hit my
targets as well but I'm not gonna go
over all of them today because they're
not relevant for today's market analysis
but I just wanted to point out that
these structure levels are very very
very strong levels to pay attention to
and can provide some great structure
trading opportunities which obviously go
really well with trend continuation
opportunities you can see these pullback
trades quite often hit their targets and
so do these structure counter trend
trades so by combining trend
continuation with structure based
trading you can really box the market in
quite well and get some great trading
opportunities such as what we saw on
Ozzy dollar so that's all I have to say
in today's market analysis video before
I go for any of you who are interested
my Pine Street mastery course is
releasing this weekend on the 7th of
June my 30th birthday here's how the
course will look I've recorded the
majority of the content have still get a
few more lessons to record this week
before the course releases but if you
want to master pine script then look no
further than this pine script mastery
course if you want to be notified of the
release and receive a 50% discount off
the release price just sign up to my
mailing list there's a link in the video
description
and yeah this course will teach
everything you need to know it covers
the basics of pine script how to draw to
your chart the different pine script
operators how to detect various
candlestick patterns it covers the
inbuilt functions and variables and some
of these sections aren't finished yet
I'll be adding a few more lessons to
this section I'll be adding a couple
more lessons to this section on inbuilt
indicators and how to use the inbuilt
pine script indicators there'll be a few
more lessons on higher time frames and
how to access other market data and also
a couple more lessons in the strategy
section showing you how to make your own
strategies and finally I'll be excited
to offer one-on-one pine script
mentorship to students in a separate
program that I'm working on as well so
I'm really excited to release this
course and if you're interested in that
the link is in the video description and
I'd love to see you there if you're
interested in pine script I'll be
teaching you guys everything I know
about pine script and a few more things
that I learned while making the course
so anyway that's it for this week's
market analysis let's have a quick look
at the economic calendar there's quite a
bit on this week I'm not going to go
over everything here but just be aware
that it's going to be a volatile week in
terms of fundamentals there's quite a
few important releases happening this
week that I can see here standing out to
me we've got Canadian interest rates
we've got European interest rates we've
got Canadian employment and USD non-farm
and employment which will obviously be
very interesting to see as it's been
affected by coronavirus so anyway be
safe out there manage your risk and I'll
see you in the next video
take care
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