FOREX MARKET ANALYSIS - 20th April 2020 Some Beach-side Analysis!

get out of here ants little bastards hey
guys this is matt from zen and the art
of trading today I'm doing something a
little different I'm getting out of the
house got a bit bored sitting around the
house all day so I'm down at the beach
here down in the park
recording my analysis for this week and
if you needed the channel this is just a
weekly market analysis video that I do
where I break down the major currency
Forex currency pairs so euro dollar
dollar yen pound dollar Aussie dollar
and dollar Canadian so let's start out
on the daily chart so first question I
ask is what is the daily trend right
here on euro dollar
there is no trend reason for that is
that we've just had this impulsive move
lower here broke structure to the
downside and since then we've just sort
of gone sideways and we're now in a
weird sort of sideways range so we have
no trend here on the euro dollar and the
next question I ask myself is where is
the most immediate support and
resistance levels and they're right here
and up here so this one 10 even handle
number this is more of a zone not a
strict line you can see we came up into
this zone last week and we rejected from
it so this 110 even is definitely acting
as resistance at the moment and this one
is seven point eight roughly is acting
as support
so as this market goes sideways even
though we don't have a trend we don't
have any way to take advantage of trend
continuation moves we have plenty of
opportunities here for structure trading
so we may have a range that forms in
here between these lows and this high up
here and so you may be able to go long
from down here and short from up here
depending on your trading plan rules
that sort of thing but that's what I'm
seeing on this pair at the moment it's
actually quite quite boring so this
might it sorry there's birds flying
around I'm one worried they might swoop
me and so the next question I ask myself
is what daily price action patterns are
forming and right now we don't have any
we don't have any daily chart patterns
forming we're just sort of in the middle
of nowhere right now but we are
approaching this support zone down here
so it'll be interesting to see what
happens when price is and when price
gets back down to this support zone so
the next question I ask myself is what
is the four-hour trend so down on this
four-hour chart
we do have somewhat of a bearish trend
forming lower highs lower lows coming in
here but this is in the context of all
this chop over here so definitely not a
trend I'm looking to trade on the lower
timeframes given the fact that we're
approaching support my bias is actually
bullish on this pair but in saying that
I don't see any trading opportunities
setting up right now we'd have to come a
little bit lower here into this blue
zone before I would start looking for
long trades once we get down here if we
get a double bottom or a large with
pinbar rejection candle in the discern
that could provide a good opportunity to
go along depending on your trading plan
rules but that's one thing for this pair
right now not much happening on euro
dollar
let's move on to the next pair
so last week on dollar-yen we work
starting the form the beginnings of a
potential bearish bat pattern but that's
now invalidated we've come down to test
this expects the a leg low of that and
so this patents invalid invalidated and
we delete it we do a lot of that in
trading technical analysis we predict
things happen in the future in of the
director we just delete them move on to
the next potential opportunity and right
now we've had a double bottom down here
on this structure zone it's 107 even
handle number and so that could have
provided a nice trading opportunity for
any structure based traders but before I
begin let me just go through my
checklist the first question I ask you
is what is the daily trend and again
there is no daily trend here due to the
recent coronavirus volatility these
pairs are all over the place we've had
this large impulsive move here that it's
sort of in the middle of nowhere now
we've cooled back down and we're
bouncing around these structure levels
but we don't have a clear trend on this
time threat in this daily chart but we
do have structural levels to pay
attention to so we have this 107 even
handle down here we have this 108 0.3
level in through here which has acted as
support and resistance of multiple times
in the past and then we have is 109
point 7 level all the way up here that
has also acted as support and resistance
in the past so these are the three
immediate levels that I'm paying
attention to for training opportunities
go drop down at the 4-hour chart you can
see we did have a very nice clean double
bottom down on the structure level which
would have provided a great trading
opportunity so we have this impulsive
move down here rally out of there back
up into the structure zone up here and
then we rolled over and double bottom
and since then we've had another rally
out of this zone down here this 107 zone
so that's very interesting and goes to
demonstrate the power of structure
during consolidating markets in
particular when there's no trend to take
advantage of and not much momentum
there's still potential trading
opportunities around these structures
owns and so the trend on this 4-hour
chart is actually bearish you do have
lower highs lower lows coming down into
the structure level and until we sort of
get back above this
structure level at 108 point 3 which is
being tested as support and resistance
multiple times on this timeframe as well
as the daily chart then I'm actually
bearish on this pair so I won't be
taking any long trades the time to take
long trades was down here at the
structures are where prices right now
there's no we have no business going
along on this timeframe so unless we get
a one two three move out of this zone
that breaks this previous support zone
I'm not looking for long trades on this
currency pair and there are no trading
opportunities setting up right now so
I'm neutral on this pair I'll be
standing aside this week not looking for
any trades on this pair until we get
that breaking close above this 108 zone
so that's an easy one to analyze let's
move on to the next pair
so let's move on to the next pair which
is pound dollar now pound dollars trend
has now entered a potential bullish
reversal pattern reason for that is it
just had this one two three move that
broke this previous little swing high in
here and that now looks like we may be
acting your support on this if i zoom in
a bit you can see we're getting a few
wicks on these previous highs that's
very interesting so basically what that
means for me and my trading is it up my
bias for this pair is just shifted to
bullish on the 4-hour chart the lower
timeframes intraday timeframes so we
don't have a bullish trend yet until we
get this continuation through here just
I've got a little friend here no never
mind you flew away had a little bird
land on my table he was very curious
about what I'm up to
but anyway so yeah until we get so until
we get that 1 2 3 4 5
breaking close above this swing high we
don't have a bullish trend but we
definitely have the beginnings of the
potential bullish trend reversal and so
my bias is now shifted to the long side
and I'm looking for bullish trades long
trades on the intraday timeframes and I
dropped down to the first of all the
structural levels I'm paying attention
to obviously this resistance level in
here could potentially act as resistance
here but we did get a break and close
above it so I'm not very bearish right
now on this pair because of that and so
if I drop down on the four-hour chart
here you have a little bit of a clearer
picture of what's happening here you
definitely have a bullish trend on this
timeframe I draw it out and look
something like this we had this double
bottom down here and then since then
we've had its push up here a little
pullback another break and close there
another pullback and now I've had
another break and close above these
highs so we definitely have a bullish
trend on this for our time frame in the
context of a potential bullish reversal
on the daily chart and so these swing
highs in here appear to be potentially
acting our support and this for our
moving average this peak the EMA and so
prices take
while to rally out of this zone and that
is troubling definitely troubling for
this trend but technically speaking we
do have the bullish trend on this
timeframe and so I'm actually long on
this pair I went long at the close of
this bullish engulfing candle of this
EMA so I'm just writing this position
out waiting to see what will happen
either I'll be stopped out for a small
loss or this could be the beginnings of
a potential bullish trend back up to
these swing highs in here so definitely
definitely interesting to see what's
going to happen on this pair and so yeah
that's all I really have to say for our
biases bullish daily trend biases
bullish and I am long on this pair going
forward into this week and I'll be
holding that position throughout this
week and thus we'll see how that unfolds
and so the only trading opportunity I
potentially see here is maybe a breakout
pattern of this trendline if you're not
long yet and maybe wait for confirmation
of a breakout above these little swing
highs in here before going along because
there is potential that the structure
zone here could act as resistance in you
could see you see a reversal here and a
move much lower and so that's all I have
to say about this pair let's move on to
the next currency pair
which is Australian dollar an Australian
dollar is in a similar position to pound
off and that we've had this one to three
potential bullish reversal pattern occur
we've reclaimed this 50 EMA and this
structure is owned up here the structure
resistance owned it 63 cents which again
if you're not sure how I identify these
zones go back and watch my previous
videos I'm not going to go into it today
because I just I want to keep this video
short but now my bias on this pair is to
the upside bullish because of this 1 2 3
move if I drop down to a 4-hour chart
and get an even clearer picture you can
see here that we have in fact got a
bullish trend I draw this out and we
have this 1 2 3
move the began this bullish trend and
then since then we've been making higher
highs higher lows
we've now pulled back found support on
this 50 EMA and I took a long trade last
week similar to pound doll had a bullish
engulfing candle here I got a little bit
of a better entry as I woke up the next
day and got filled at a much lower price
than the close of this candle and so
I've already hit my profit target on
this pair and I'm now at break-even in
my second position and I'm just gonna
trail my position and see if we do get
that continuation to the upside and so
right now not really any trading
opportunities setting up we are in the
middle of nowhere but my buyers for this
week is bullish so definitely looking
for bullish trades on this currency pair
looking for long trades on these
intraday timeframes and so that's it for
this pair bullish on this pair another
week to come the structure zone and here
it could act as our support in the days
to come
so definitely keep an eye on this 63
cent even here number if we to retrace
hello I look for a double bottom or
something down there could provide a
good long opportunity
let's move on to the final pair today
which is dollar Canadian so you can see
last week we also had a bearish Batman
potentially forming on this pair but
that did not come to fruition and so we
can delete that this week and we did in
fact break and close below these lows in
here which is quite bearish Ashley in
the short term so I've had this one two
three break and closed below this low
which as I've explained in the previous
couple of pairs is the beginning signs
of a potential trend reversal are the
only reason I'm skeptical that this is
going to turn into a bearish trend is
this massive bullish candle here is
showing that buyers are still stepping
into this market and so technically my
bias on this pair is probably neutral
because of that fact we do have the
beginnings of a bearish trend reversal
but we have this large bullish candle
here so that's giving me mixed signals
and so uh neutral on this pair going
into this week and so structural levels
this week are the same as last week
we've got this 40 cent even handle in
here they could potentially act as
support again and we may get a little
sort of Head and Shoulders action in
here looks like that's definitely on the
cards right now given how prices is
responding bullish Lee again from this
side right now so we could have a nice
little Head and Shoulders pattern here
and so breaking close above this these
two little swing high trend lining here
couldn't signal a bullish continuation
to the upside and so if I drop down on
the floor our chart real quick see
what's going on down here it's a bit of
a mess a bit of a mess but we have had a
potential reversal pattern occurring in
here on this time frame so we had this
series of lower highs lower lows forming
came in had a really weak bounce off
this structure zone in here then we sort
of trickled below it and now I've had
this impulsive move back above this
little swing high in here so that's a
bullish sign for the bullish couple
boards and golfing kettle's here off
this Russia's own it's 40 cent even
handle but I'm not trading this pair
this week just because it's just a giant
mess right now and until we get that
one two three continuation move I'm
gonna stand aside on this path once we
get this I may begin looking for a
bullish trend continuation on this
timeframe so that's it for this pair and
for my market analysis this week keep it
short and sweet this week because
there's really not much happening to be
honest with you
and finally we'll just have a quick look
at the economic calendar we don't have
very much on this week we've got a
couple of speakers the Trump speaking
which is always interesting we've got
the governor low speaking that'll be
interesting for the Australian dollar
depending what he has to say in terms of
data we have unemployment claims for the
US dollar on Thursday that'll be very
interesting to see we also have retail
sales out of out of Britain and that'll
also be interesting they're the only
events that really stand out to me here
manufacturing will be interesting
obviously and these services once all of
these are high impact events that's why
they're red so they all play a play a
major role in forests volatility but
they're the only ones today that I
imagine most large investors will be
paying attention to its unemployment
claims retail sales and whatever these
guys have to say so that's it for this
week's market analysis I hope you find
it found it interesting please subscribe
if you did and I'll be back next week
I'll go into more detail hopefully
you'll have a little bit more movement
in the markets this week and it'll lead
to some more interesting analysis
because this week really hasn't changed
since last week for most of these pairs
other than pound dollar and Aussie
dollar having that one-two-three
reversal bullish reversal pattern hasn't
been really any changes in the markets
so that's it guys good luck this week
hope Ice elation isn't driving you crazy
and if it is try and find a way to get
out like I have a sort of snuck out I'm
not even sure if I'm allowed to do this
to be honest but I'm on my own I'm
nowhere near anyone else I'm gonna go
for a walk after this walk along the
beach get some Sun get some exercise and
go home and manage my trades so that's
the that's the traders life it's not bad
I'll tell you that it's not bad and so
see you guys next week
be safe be well trade green take it easy
everyone good bye
[Music]
you