FOREX MARKET ANALYSIS - 25th May 2020 Some Great Trading Setups!

hey traders welcome back to another
market analysis video gonna keep this
video short because I'm very busy at the
moment working on the pine script
mastery course it's nearly ready for
release something really excited about
that but let's just break down these
five markets really quickly euro dollar
dollar yen pound dollar Ozzie dollar and
dollar Canadian and I'm gonna stay on
the daily chart for this video so the
past few weeks I've been sending out my
email analysis by email to to everyone
subscribe to the email list if you want
to sign up for that it's in the
description but today I wanted to take a
quick minute to this analysis because
these markets are in really interesting
situations right now so here on euro
dollar last week I was expecting a
bullish mood out of this structure zone
down here it's 107 8 3 1 zone the reason
for that was because it's been tested
multiple times looking left
you look really far left this zone has
been tested multiple times and even in
the recent past we've had a double
bottom down here and then a really nice
reaction out of there we had this
impulsive move from here earlier in the
year and then we had price hanging
around down here putting in a lot of
weeks we had 1 2 3 4 5 decent sized
wicks in this zone which was giving me a
lot of confidence that this market was
moving higher or wanted to move higher
and sure enough it did and then all
these lines were drawn in last week so
it's been very interesting to watch this
market respect these these levels so
well as soon as we got this impulsive
move out of this zone let me turn this
EMA off now because it's not relevant
when the EMA is only relevant when the
markets trending and we're not trending
right now we're in a range but it's a
very nice range very clean range we've
had three tests of each each side of
this range now this structure resistance
level up here is 110 turn this is a
level I've been looking at because it's
been tested multiple times as well
looking left which was tested support
once twice thrice and then tested as
resistance once twice thrice so that's
really interesting definitely keep an
eye on this 110 level if price does get
back up there this week right now my
bias is neutral and intraday timeframe
chills I don't know if this is going to
hover at the top of this range we'll
come back down to retest the lows but
when price gets into these structures
owns definitely pay attention on those
intraday timeframes because you might
get some great trading opportunities
down there or up here so that's it for
your dollar
very interesting situation
very clean range you don't often see
range as this clean so I'm sure there's
plenty of great structure-based trading
opportunities setting up on this pair in
the weeks to come keep an eye on that so
next up is dollar yen and this pair has
recently put in some pretty interesting
moves it's sort of gone in that we're in
a in a context of consolidation as of
this year since this from this
coronavirus messiness but we've recently
gone into somewhat of a bearish trend if
I draw out what I'm seeing here let me
let me turn off this error so if I draw
out what I'm seeing here we have this
one two three move breaking structure to
the downside and since then we've really
hovered around the highs of this zone in
here and so that's really interesting to
me we've got a number of wicks here we
are sort of making higher lows up into
this zone so it's definitely possible we
could see a breakout of this Zone in the
week to come beyond this for our chart
we actually have a bullish trend
developing but on the daily chart we are
in what I would call a bearish situation
I'm not really interested in trading
this pair this week from these levels
simply because my structural level that
I'm looking for that I would take
profits at is this structure swap level
he has been tested as support and
resistance multiple times looking left
it doesn't give us a lot of room doesn't
give me a lot of room to take profits if
I were to go short it's only about 60 70
pips which is but you might get a decent
trade on the one out of a 15-minute
chart but I like to trade the 4-hour
chart the moment because I'm so busy
with other things such as working on
this pine script course and so for the
time being I've been standing aside from
intraday timeframe just to focus on
other work I'm also back testing other
strategies I'm not really happy with how
my strategy's been performing this year
but that's another story so I'm working
on improving that and that involves a
lot of back testing which is very time
consuming so I like to trade the 4-hour
chart just so I have more time between
trading setups and trade management so I
won't be trading this pair this week but
we are looking like we're in a bearish
situation and this is a real decision
point if price can break above this
point in the week to come it could
a great structure trading zone looking
for long trades in this zone but
alternatively if we get like a double
top up here on this say 4-hour chart the
price looks like it wants to come back
up to test these highs if we get another
rejection like another shooting star
candle like this one here from this zone
that'd be great
place to look for a short trading
opportunity stop loss above the highs
looking for a move back down to this
these lows down here or potentially even
these lows all the way down here but
that would be wishful thinking I would
be conservative with at least your first
target in to take it off around this 107
zone if you do get a short trading
opportunity up here of course this isn't
trading advice this is just my opinion
on the markets in my opinion is just as
good as yours so don't go trading this
information I don't have a crystal ball
all I'm doing is pointing out good
opportunity zones that allow for decent
risk reward ratios on intraday
timeframes if we get confirmation that
these zones are holding so let's move on
to the next pair which is pound dollar
the pound dollar has made a very
interesting move recently we came up to
test this structure resistance level
which had been tested multiple times as
support and resistance and then we had
this a couple of pokes above the zone
but they were both rejected pretty
swiftly and since that double rejection
up here this kind of double top what
happened there
since this double top up here very nice
clean double top we've now had this 1 2
3 move that broke structure down here
and so now I'm bearish on this pair I
have a bearish bias and this zone in
here this previous swing low you can see
we had this move lower here within this
consolidation period then we had two
candles rise out of this zone this
previous support zone
and then we rolled over below this low
and now we're testing this wick of this
1 2 3 move this is an optimal trading
zone this is what my trading mentor
Stephen Hart calls an optimal trading
zone and we're also if I turn the EMA
back on we're also below the 50 EMA and
so that's a that's a sign that momentum
is moving to the bear side to the
downside and
here can provide great trading
opportunities on lower timeframes look
at all these wicks we had in here this
large engulfing candle bearish engulfing
candle this huge kind of dodi shooting
star light candle all on the 4-hour 50
EMA as well mind you this zone made for
a great trading opportunity we may have
even had a yeah we had a double top here
on the one-hour chart you could have
traded and a large bearish engulfing
candle multiple multiple multiple
opportunities to go short in this zone
depending what timeframe you're trading
and unfortunately I missed this trade
because I didn't get a setup that met my
rules that's another reason why I'm back
testing I'm trying new structure based
trading strategies to try and take
advantage of these moves in the future
but this was a phenomenal zone to be
looking for short trading opportunities
in we have plenty of room here to ride
this market down into this structures
aren't down here the reason I'm looking
at this zone is if i zoom out it was
support had a really nice large double
bottom in here that really propelled
price dramatically to the upside
so after this sort of panic selling here
price has regained this ground and so
I'm expecting this zone to potentially
act as a very major structural level now
that we're back above it so keep an eye
on that this week definitely a zone to
be paying attention to
certainly for taking profit if you're
short and potentially for going long if
we get any decent long trading
counter-trend
opportunities in here such a double
bottoms or hammer candles that sort of
thing but where price is right now after
having this rejection from the zone
there is potential that you may be able
to find short trading opportunities on
this pair now that we've got it's one
two three move on this 4-hour chart if
we get a bearish engulfing candle up in
these lows that could make for a great
short trading opportunity we've already
tested this urn on a couple candles back
like late last week so if we go to the
one-hour chart here we had a large
bearish engulfing candle testing this
urn beneath the one hour 50 EMA that
could make for a great short trading
opportunity as well stop-loss above the
high and then looking to ride this
market down to these lows down in here
for potentially a little bit lower down
into this struck
zone so certainly decent risk/reward
ratio there and of course if you went
short up here you've got a great risk
reward ratio so if you went short on
this double top stop-loss above the high
yield sitting pretty right now and you
could ride this market all the way down
potential for a 4 to 5 are trade out of
this otz optimal trading zone so very
interesting to see here on pound dollar
so that's it for pound dollar let's move
on to the next pair which is Australian
dollar now this has been a phenomenal
pair to watch the past few weeks it's
been in a very nice bullish trend ever
since this sort of capitulation
downtrend this impulsive move lower
because of covert since then we've had
an almost v-shaped recovery we had this
large one two three move that sort of
put me put my bias to the long side and
since then my bias has been correct
because we have trended higher and until
this stops until we get a breaking close
below this swing low in here
my bias will remain bullish so I've
already drawn out what I was looking at
here so we had these this established
bullish trend last week I sent out my
email analysis around here or a couple
of weeks ago I sent out my email
analysis around here I was expecting
this EMA now that we have an established
trend to active support because his EMA
levels do tend to act very consistently
very reliably as support and resistance
levels especially on this daily chart
when the market is trending if the
markets not trending then they're not as
reliable but once the market starts
clearly obviously trending like this
these 50 EMAS can make for great trading
zones and sure enough that's what we got
out of this zone a couple of weeks ago
we came back up to retest the highs we
did put in a double top here but I
didn't really care about that because
we're in the middle of nowhere this
isn't really a structure zone we did
have this swing low structure shelf in
here but we were clearly above that
above the bodies of this zone so I
wasn't looking for short trades here at
all I was stalking long trades and that
turned out to be a good idea a good
thing because until we get a break and
close below this low or until me until
we got a breaking close below this load
the trend bullish trend was intact and
so I was stalking long trades we were
still above this 50 EMA and then
eventually we came back down to
we test the AMA and the Lowe's in here
and then once we failed to break and
close below these Lowe's price did
eventually break you out to the upside
and we got that breaking close above
this swing high here and so now my bias
is still very bullish and I'm looking
for long trades and I actually have a
long signal here if I throw on my
ultimate pullback indicator you can see
I have a bullish signal here and so I'm
long well I'm waiting GB filled on my
long order down at the close of this
candle stop-loss 180 I blow the lowest
target first target here second target
all the way up in this red turn but this
signal happened really that's happened
at 3:00 a.m. on Friday or Saturday
morning for me so I certainly wasn't up
from trading at 3:00 a.m. on a Saturday
so I missed this signal and so now I've
got a limit order waiting at this close
hoping that price suppressed nearly
filled me this morning but not quite
hopefully before price hits my target
price will roll over to fill me on my
order down here and this is a great long
trading opportunity because on this
daily chart we have this little
structure shelf in here and on this
four-hour chart we are above the 50 EMA
and testing it as potential support so I
really like to set up and I'm hoping I
get filled on it if I don't get filled
no big deal I'm not chasing the market
I've learned not to do that
the hard way quite frankly and I've been
burned many times trying to buy these
markets if I were to buy it now
my risk reward is just all off now I
might be able to get my target soft
before these highs but not now I can't
see to get a minimum one to one risk
reward have left my target up at this
week and no thank you I'm not doing that
this this trade just looks hideous to me
I want this market to come back down a
little bit lower so that I get a much
better risk reward profile and a much
higher chance of being filled on my
target before price retest these highs
because these highs and lows do tend to
act as magnets on price and not many
traders are going to be taking profit in
the middle of this range typically
speaking and so price is much more
likely to come up in
hit this high at some point and so
hopefully I get filled on my trade
before that happens if not I'll just
look for the next trade so that's it for
Australian dollar I'm bullish bullish
trend a bullish trading opportunity
setting up on that 4-hour chart really
exciting and anyone who caught that move
in the EAP program on that 4-hour chart
good luck with that trade I have a very
strong feeling that you're gonna hit
targets on that this week but of course
no one knows what's gonna happen so
certainly important to continue managing
your risk keep that risk small keepers
position sizes reasonable so let's move
on to the final pair which is really
cool this is us CAD so the Canadian the
US dollar against Canadian dollar or the
loonie as they like to say my sister
lives in Canada and she's turned a
little bit loony since she's now I'm
just kidding the this market just looks
really interesting to me we have this
bearish sort of minor trendline it's not
really minor anymore we've had four
tests of this four rejections really
decent rejections of this upper trend
line so I would call this a major trend
line right now I don't really trade off
trend lines but I do pay attention to
them and this one is certainly one to
pay attention to and the reason I don't
trade off them is I just haven't tested
tested trading off them yet I don't have
anything against them I'm not a trend
lioness I'm not prejudiced against them
I just don't have any way to take
advantage of these setups but if I if we
do get a breakout to the upside here and
we get a break above these highs in here
I will definitely be stoking long
trading opportunities on this 4-hour
chart and I showed you on the Australian
dollar the kind of setup so I'm looking
for I'm looking for the price to start
trending on this 4-hour chart above the
50 EMA mostly it was break out of this
trendline then I will start looking for
potential long training opportunities
but until that happens I'm standing
aside because I don't know where this
market is going to go we've had four
tests of this bearish trend line and
three tests of the structure in here
this structure support level down here
and so I'm not sure which levels going
to break first we do have lower highs
coming in so that's a bearish sign
but we're also on this massive bullish
move here so this could be seen as a
bull flag a bullish trend continuation
flag price may just be consolidating
before it continues higher it's really
hard to tell in these situations and so
that's why I like to wait for price
action confirmation and be waiting for a
breakout or break down if we get a
breakdown that'll make it this a
phenomenal potential short trading zone
very nice clean structure zone in here
no ambiguity about it whatsoever if
price does break down and then come up
to retest this soon we'll be able to get
a very nice clean risk reward profile if
we get a price action pattern in here
that gives us an indication the market
does want to head lower otherwise
likewise we have this sort of
compliments in here of this of this
daily high in here in this bearish trend
line if we get back above this I could
make for great trading opportunity a
good place to rest your stop-loss
beneath expecting the market to
potentially come back up to these highs
in here which will give you a positive
risk reward ratio or if we're really
lucky all the way back up to these highs
up here which would give a phenomenal
risk reward ratio and the reason why I'm
looking at these two zones here for zoom
the chart right out this support zone
I'm looking at as support simply because
it's been tested multiple times recently
with very nice moves out of that but
this structure resistance zone up here
resumed go all the way back here to 2016
look at that for a level it's just a
very clean standalone level nice huge
shooting star candle here giving us a
really nice level to reference and so if
price does breakout to the upside that
is a zone I will absolutely certainly be
looking to take my profit off if I am
long and definitely a place to look for
potential short trading opportunities if
we get a nice double top up here so
that's something to look out for over
the coming months the rest of this year
as for really immediate price action
this is what I'm looking for here I'm
standing aside I'm neutral my bias is
neutral until we get a breakout to the
upside and a retest and a price action
confirmation that price does want to
continue higher or the opposite break
down with a retest and a price action
confirmation signal that price
to move lower that's what I'm waiting
for on this very nice wedge pattern on
us CAD and that's it for this week's
market analysis I hope you found that
helpful again don't trade any of this
information blindly just this is just my
opinion and if you were looking at the
same thing on these charts then maybe
this will just give you the confidence
to commit to any trading opportunities
that you get or give you ideas to go out
and back tests that's another great
reason to watch videos like this anyway
that's it have a great trading week I
hope you do well I hope you kill it out
there and if you're interested in
learning how to code your own indicators
such as this ultimate pullback indicator
that I've created here in the video
description there is a link to sign up
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mastery course releases this is a
programming course I'm working on to
teach people how to create their own
indicators and strategy scripts and
trading tools to assist in your trading
and your technical analysis as you can
see I recorded quite a few lessons here
I'm up to maybe 30 or 40 lessons just
yesterday I recorded nearly all of these
inbuilt indicator lessons I'm moving on
now to higher timeframe and accessing
other markets and strategy scripts and
so there's quite a lot of content that
I'm pumping out here and if you want to
learn pine script this is all you'll
ever need to know in order to master the
especially the basics and to make your
own scripts so certainly encourage you
to go over and check that out if you're
interested in that anyone who signs up
to this coding pine script course to my
email list to be notified of when it
releases will get a 50% discount off the
opening price whatever that is haven't
decided yet because I haven't finished
doing the work and the cost will depend
on how much work goes into finalizing
the course and obviously putting it up
online and managing questions and and
that sort of thing I'm probably gonna
split the course up into two or three
sections a basic section and the mastery
section and certainly some sort of
mentorship sort of one-on-one help or
Q&A type service so if you want more
information about that sign up to my
mailing list and I will send you out
information about that when it's ready
so that's it for this week's market
analysis let's have a quick peek at the
economic calendar the global economic
calendar for the week and there is
bugger all
on this week pardon my Australian we
have a public holiday on Monday which
means they'll be reduced volatility to
date for sure in the forex markets and
there's not really any news coming out
same for Tuesday and oh I don't really
see anything here that will be
dramatically sort of dramatically
influenced the markets other than maybe
GDP due to coronavirus influence maybe
that'll be interesting everything else
is kind of business as usual not really
expecting any surprises maybe Powell
might say something on Friday or
Saturday for me 1 a.m. but I didn't care
about that because I will be asleep and
that's it for this week's market
analysis I hope you found that helpful
and good luck with your trading this
week I hope you kill it see you in the
next video
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