Market Analysis - BITCOIN, FOREX & SP500 11th January

[Music]
hey traders welcome to my weekly market
analysis video this is a new series i'm
going to start
this year or restart i used to do it
last year but
i got distracted along the way with
panscript mastery course
but now that i'm on top of everything
there and i've got some good processes
in place i have a little bit more time
to devote to other content and
this is something i've been wanting to
do for a while so i'm just going to be
breaking down like the
top-down analysis daily chart weekly
chart sometimes
kind of view of certain markets i'm
going to mostly cover markets that i
personally trade
because obviously i'm more in tune with
those markets than others
i look at them every day but i'm also
going to try and cover any markets that
are hot right now
such as crypto at the moment so before i
begin obvious disclaimer this is not
information you should be trading off
this is just my opinion
my perspective on the markets and it's
intended to be educational it's supposed
to teach you guys
how to systematically approach technical
analysis
so you can be consistent none of us know
where the market's going tomorrow so
everything i say here
is almost pointless to be honest with
you but the reason it's not pointless is
because this information is what informs
my edge
over the markets so the whole point of
technical analysis is to identify
zones where if you were to place a trade
if that trade were to win you would make
more money
than you would lose if you repeat that
process over and over again
so for example if i identify a zone of
potential structure support
that doesn't mean you should put all of
your account going long when price gets
down there
the idea is to wait for price action
confirmation
such as a price action pattern that
leads you to believe that
bulls are stepping in in that support
zone and then from there
you need to manage your trade in such a
way that your risk reward
makes up for any potential losses so
most professional traders only win
50 of the time at best there's a few
that exceed that win rate and a few that
are below it
but basically for every dollar they're
risking they're making two
three four dollars per trade
and so with even with a 40 win rate if
you're making three times your money
every time you win
versus when you lose you're going to be
profitable so technical analysis is not
some
voodoo magic it's certainly not
foolproof
it gets a lot of flack from fundamental
traders and bigger traders
who don't fully understand how to
appropriately apply
this tool it's a lot like a weather
report you know just because the
weatherman says it's going to be sunny
tomorrow there's going to be 60
chance of sun doesn't mean you should go
and bet your entire bank account on the
sun coming out tomorrow it's not how
probabilities work so i just wanted to
get that obvious disclaimer out of the
way this is not trading
information do not go out and trade this
just like a weather report this is just
my opinions based on my experience in
the markets my understandings of market
patterns
this is what i'm expecting this week out
of these markets and i'll be explaining
exactly how i would personally approach
uh any trading opportunities that arise
within
this week of trading opportunities so
let's get into the video
i hope you enjoy it and if you do please
leave a like and
maybe comment what market you'd like me
to cover and if you don't like it that's
fine you don't have to watch it
uh or hit the dislike button it doesn't
hurt anyone
and i'm always open to positive
constructive feedback so if you don't
like it leave a comment
please tell me why but in any case let's
get into the analysis
so first things first let's cover
bitcoin let's look at this beast
uh which is making history yet again so
i got involved in crypto back in 2017
back around here when bitcoin was in the
mid
thousands a mid low thousands so
i think it was around 3 000 us dollars
when i got involved
i think i got involved around here in
june of 2017 is when i put my first
crypto trades on
and it just went ballistic from there
and it was quite an exciting time
um to be in crypto and we had this
winter the crypto winter that lasted a
couple of years here
where nothing much happened and then
finally
late last year we had this huge breakout
of this
uh range in here if we drop out to the
weekly chart
um it's been quite impressive since we
broke above 20
000 had quite an impressive rally so
we've hit 40 000 now which is uh
pretty much a one to one measured move
from zero
so if we draw around zero it's not quite
a one-to-one
measured move because a one-to-one
measured move is
calculated from the pullback but we have
definitely
doubled since making this swing high
so i'm expecting 40 000 roughly speaking
40 000 to be an important level for
bitcoin
uh just psychologically we have no
structure to reference on this market
looking left so
this is pure psychology at this point
and
i'm expecting 40 000 to potentially act
as resistance
on this market just because of the price
action patterns we've been seeing unfold
from this zone
so we're having a bit of volatility kick
in here the most amount of volatility
we've seen since this rally began
so we've already had a 17
decline from the swing high and a week
ago we had this
sort of panic sell happen in here so
volatility is picking up on this market
as we're coming into this
major uh even handled number so i am
expecting price action
to sell off a bit here now we are
finding support on this 50 ema
and on this four hour chart we do have
this swing high in here
that will potentially act as support in
the short term future
so i wouldn't be surprised to see price
action trickle down a bit lower
test this zone and then rally up and
potentially double top up here
if that happens then we definitely have
a major resistance zone on our hands
if price action just blows through this
level well i'll have to go back to the
drawing board and reassess
what's going on i'll have to be patient
and wait but i am long on this market i
am
being long on this market for quite a
while and so i am keeping a keen eye on
price action as we get higher and higher
what i'm waiting for essentially is
a violation of the trend so we've had
this
uh these series of one two three moves
here
where we're making higher highs and
higher lows
and this has not been violated at all
since this began we haven't even seen
price action put in a one two three move
to the downside
we all have had is one two three moves
to the upside a very
clean classic bullish trend so what i'm
waiting on
is price action to give me that lower
high that initial lower high
before we break support once that occurs
then we could have a potentially
significant correction
on our hands until that occurs i'm
expecting
this bullish trend to continue so
right now the major levels i'm paying
attention to
on this four hour chart this swing high
in here at around 34
000 and this swing low swing high in
here at around 28 000
if these levels do not act as support
then i'll be taking significant profit
off my positions
and waiting for the trend to reverse and
we get an another significant
trend reversal pattern occur so that's
what i'm looking at here on this four
hour time frame
on the daily chart things look a lot
differently
so first of all obviously the major
uh support zone that we could see on
this market
is this old 20 000
swing high in here if we see a
massive sell-off like we saw back in
2018
2017 late 2017 early 2018
if we see another huge sell-off from
this zone
i would expect 20k to act as a major
support level there's a lot of traders
who'll be watching that level
anyone who goes short is likely to cover
their position around there
and anyone who's looking to go long or
add to their position
especially institutional funds that are
coming into this market
uh they're definitely going to be paying
close attention to that 20 000 level
but that's a long way away so if price
action does
stay strong and healthy and bullish in
the
year to come or the first few months of
this year what major levels would i be
paying attention to well the first one
is this 50 ema
hasn't been tested in quite some time
it's likely
to act as support when if and when price
action comes down to test it
when you have a very strong impulsive
trend like this occurring
that is when moving averages become
extremely
powerful because a lot of traders are
paying attention to them when you're in
consolidation that's not the case
but when you have a strong trend like
this these 50 emas can
often act as support same with the 200
the 100
even the 20 25 can quite often act as
support
but the 50 is a great sort of mid-term
trend continuation level
if price action retraces back to that 50
ema after a big rally like that
uh that's a good price to pick up at
this market
for trend continuation so keep an eye on
the 50 ema
um also i already showed the four hour
levels i'm paying attention to
roughly around thirty four thousand and
twenty eight thousand i believe
it was which would be the swing high in
here and this
sort of consolidation range in here the
next daily level would be this swing
high
through here so uh down here at
twenty four thousand so those are the
levels i'd be paying attention to
on this market for potential buying
opportunities if you're not already long
if you're already long keep an eye on
this level if you get a
significant double top up here uh you
know like a
shooting star type candle here or a big
bearish engulfing candle
that could be a great reason to take
your profit if you're already long on
this market
and alternatively if you've already sold
your position up here
or you are looking to get along on this
market being patient waiting for it to
come down to
this 34 000 level on a four hour time
frame
or the 28 000 level on the four hour
time frame
or this 50 ema it could be interesting
if this 50 ema
comes in compliments with this 28 000
level if this sell-off does pick up some
steam
that could turn this into a major level
to pay attention to
otherwise if this daily chart does pick
up momentum to the downside then 24 000
will be a good level to pay attention
to as well as 20 000 especially 20 000.
now i'm not telling you how to trade
this market this is just how i
perceive things and what i'm personally
going to be doing going forward
and what i'm personally looking for on
this market when managing my own
positions
all right let's have a look at euro
dollar so eurodollar's been in quite an
uptrend
recently draw it out we had this big
impulsive move up here we consolidated
for a while
then we had this little fake out here
which was really just a pullback
of this move and then we consolidated
again
did not break this low so we're still in
this uptrend and then we have this rally
out of here so
looking pretty bullish in the overall
picture for euro dollar but let's break
down what's actually happening
in recent price action so we had this
sort of
ascending wedge pattern forming here
and we've recently broken down to the
downside out of this wedge
which obviously indicates that bears are
taking control of the market
at least at the moment and we could see
a
further correction lower so the question
is how low
am i expecting this market to go well
the way i would approach
analyzing this market is i draw in what
i believe will be
major support zones if price gets down
to them
so the first one i'm looking at is right
in here because we had this rally out of
out of here once price got above it the
second one is uh down in this
consolidation range down here so the
most
obvious spot would be at the high of the
bodies of this range
you can see once price got above this
range it just shot up so
these two levels will be pretty
important going forward i believe if
price action does get down there
uh the next thing i need to do is draw
out a couple of resistance zones so the
first obvious one is this
high here so color that red
and in order to confirm that these zones
are important
we need to zoom right out and see if
they've been tested multiple times in
the past
either as support or resistance doesn't
matter just as long as there's multiple
tests of
structure and those tests produced
major rallies or declines then that will
validate whether or not these levels are
significant and likely to be significant
in the future
so the first thing i notice is our
support zones
uh our immediate support zone here at
120.8
roughly speaking uh has definitely acted
as
support and resistance in the past so at
least resistance we've had
three major touches of this uh price
zone
and had declines from that zone so you
can see that there
and through here as for our second
support zone that has also acted
as support and resistance multiple times
so that confirms to me these two
support zones are likely to be important
going forward
and when price action gets down to these
zones if
transaction gets down to these zones in
the near future then we could see
another bounce
out of either of these zones now looking
at our resistance zones
let's uh zoom in here a bit so our
first resistance zone that we have
recently sold off from
is quite interesting it actually falls
dead in the middle
of this structured consolidation zone
which you can often see in markets you
see this market
traded in this zone for quite a while
and so there are a lot of orders that
were picked up in the middle of this
zone
and sometimes that can act as a
supporter resistance zone in and of
itself now i don't trade
these zones personally because there's
just no structure there to rest my stop
loss
around that makes sense to me but it is
something interesting
and worth noting now if we get out the
fixed volume profile tool this
fellow here and we draw out this zone
from when it started
roughly around here until it broke out
to the downside which
was roughly here if i draw that
in it's pretty interesting
to note that our fixed volume profile
the peak of volume traded within this
range was right on
this resistance line where the market
sold off from
recently so it's just worth noting i
thought that was interesting
and could explain why there was such a
big seller from here
even though this volume data comes from
rwanda it
doesn't represent big fund
trading bank trading or any of the
bigger players in the market this is
mostly retail trading
uh volume it's still interesting to note
that this
this price range here was heavily traded
back in 2018 and it is now acting as
resistance
but anyway the next resistance zone i'd
be looking at
potential resistance zone if price
continues higher is up here
at these highs here so the way i would
draw that out
is something like this and i wouldn't
extend that all the way reset my chart
we'd have a price zone looking like that
if price action
uh continues in this up move so we had
this
one two three move breakout then we had
a pullback then we've had
another couple of one two three moves if
price action finds support at one of
these two
swing lows then we could see price
action continue to the upside
if that happens then i'd be keeping an
eye on this
resistance zone for potential double top
or if that doesn't happen the price just
continues with this strong trend
uh then this zone up here for a
potential price action pattern to
confirm
a counter trend trade but looking at
this chart i would favor
trend continuation trades or bullish
trades and those are going to happen
either in here on a lower time frame
maybe a four hour chart you might be
able to get a nice bounce out of this
zone
but on this higher time frame certainly
this zone in here
is likely to be important likely to move
price action around a bit
uh and if not that zone then this zone
here and
while we're here we might as well just
have a quick look
at what the fixed uh profile range is
for this consolidation
zone in here let me get up my fixed
range tool
we'll draw it out from where this range
began so i'm looking at the swing low
and
going to the left this candle here
sort of came up into this range so i'll
draw it from there all the way up until
where
price action broke out of the range up
here
and that gives us a zone right in the
middle of this consolidation range
pretty similarly to up here
so that's worth noting as well if price
action does have a heavy sell-off from
here and we have a rapid decline
uh in this consolidation zone here could
be an interesting
level as well and just finally it's
worth noting
that while we were making these
um let me get this tool on while we were
making these
swing highs in here
and we broke out to the downside we were
having rsi divergence coming in as well
so as this
market is making higher highs the rsi is
starting to make lower lows and as we
come up into this major resistance zone
it's just worth noting that this rsi was
giving us clues that this market might
be a bit overextended to the upside
and so as this market's making higher
highs and beginning rsi divergence in
here
that would be a clue not to go short
necessarily but to
certainly be cautious if you're long on
this market
maybe you know if you're long from down
here things like this could be a good
sign that it's time to start trailing
your stop-loss tightly
maybe when this bar closed below this
lower trend line that could be a
place to take profit if you've been long
and riding this market out
you can also drop down to lower time
frames and look for price action
patterns there
we didn't have much here we had a double
top here but at the time it was in the
middle of nowhere and we had no idea
that this would
become a major resistance level but yeah
just a lot of clues here in this market
that it was
struggling to go higher and potentially
about to roll over
so that's something to keep an eye on in
your trading finally one last thing i
like to do
is remove all my drawings i like to
check the
50 ema because that's a level that's
often respected
in the market uh change this to 50
not 950 good lord
yeah this is pretty pretty interesting
so we have the
50 ema in confluence
with our whoops potential
uh support swing low in here so
definitely
a level worth keeping an eye on if price
action does get down here this week
um could provide a very nice uh bounce
on the lower time frame in particular so
on a four hour chart
keep an eye on this zone if we get a
double bottom or a
candle pattern like this
with a long width to the downside it
could be a very interesting
zone to trade from that most importantly
will provide
a very nice risk reward profile if you
do enter it around this zone
uh up to potential target zones so
that's a whole point of this
approach to technical analysis structure
based trading uh
we're looking for zones of price action
that if
price action does give us confirmation
that it's acting in support or
resistance
may provide a very good risk reward
opportunity so that we make more money
when we're right
than we lose when we're wrong you do
that often enough
and you can be a profitable trader so
that's it for this market
let's move on to the next one
and that is going to be australian
dollar versus
the yen japanese yen so this is an
interesting looking market right now
reason being is that we are at
a major level of resistance let me
use a different tool here if we look
left
uh this zone has acted as resist as
support here
once major support support again in here
then once price actually got below it we
had this little flag pattern
we had another big move lower then we
got back above it struggled here for a
while got back above it
came back below it uh it acted as
resistance again
then we got back above it then
eventually we
smashed through this level and now
whoops
still getting used to these drawing
tools bear with me now
since getting below this level the very
first
test of it after this flash crash here
produced a massive sell-off from this
market all the way back down to the low
of this flash crash actually
and then we rolled over again to the
downside and over the years
we've slowly made our way back up to
this major major swing high
swing high resistance zone and we are
now
testing it and we've got a pretty
interesting uh
price action pattern in here a very
clean doji candle
followed by what is looking to be if it
closes today
a lower low lower closed candle
depending on the confirmation of this
candle
this is giving us an indication that
this zone may be acting as
resistance there's not really any price
action pattern here that i could have
traded
according to my trading strategies but
if we do
get a double top up here so this
market does sell off down here maybe
find support in here or down
here or even on this 50 ema and we
rally back up if we get a double top in
here
with a price action candle pattern that
i've back tested and found to have an
edge over the markets meaning that if i
get this particular pattern
under these particular conditions i have
a higher chance of winning than losing
then i'll be taking a trade from this
zone so definitely keeping an eye
on aussie yen going into the next month
or so
and if we do sell off from this zone the
next support zone i'd be focusing on
potential support zone
might be in here on a four-hour chart uh
but on a daily chart i think it'd be
much lower like somewhere around here
so let's drop out to the daily yeah this
was a
decent resistance zone through here
price did struggle to get above here and
once it did it took off
so we have a support zone in here
that could be interesting if price
action gets back down there
so color that blue so i'll be keeping an
eye on this again we have the 50 ema
coming into confluence with this zone
uh by the time price action gets down
there unless there's a big sell-off a
rapid sell-off then this 50 ema will
probably be
in confluence with this zone if price
action does retrace that low
and so we could see a very nice bounce
out of that zone especially on
a four hour or one hour chart which is
how i like to trade this information i
do my top down analysis on the daily
chart
then i use that information to take
trading opportunities on a lower time
frame which provides for
again a really nice risk reward profile
and on a lower time frame you might even
be able to get that risk reward profile
even lower say we get a price action
pattern
around the top of this zone you could
have your stop loss a lot closer
to the zone and pick yourself up a very
nice risk reward ratio which is what
good trading is all about
so let's draw a couple more zones on
here if price action continues higher
where would i expect it to struggle next
it could potentially struggle around
here this little swing high in here
and some of these swing highs but the
one that sticks out to me the most in
here
is this zone up here so i'd be patient
if price action does continue higher and
i'd wait for it to get up here to test
up here
if it doesn't test up here then that's
fine i'll just be trading other markets
or other strategies
on this particular market so that's what
i'd be looking for here
is if this trend this breakout continues
to the upside which is likely
by the way uh then we could see a test
of this zone all the way up here but it
don't take a while but there could be
some nice trend continuation trading
opportunities on a lower timeframe like
a four-hour chart
so you might look for uh pullbacks so
we'd wait for price to do whatever it's
going to do down here and then break out
to the upside you'd wait for a pullback
and then some sort of candlestick price
action confirmation in here that would
indicate that price action wants to
continue even higher so that's one way
to take advantage of this market
if it does continue higher if it
continues lower then like i said this
support zone down here could be
significant and if it continues even
lower from
here then we'd have a bearish trend on
our hands
most likely by then but the next
structure
support zone potential structural
support zone would be these highs in
here
which have acted as a major resistance
multiple times and then as support
once we got above it so
that's it for this market not much else
to say about that
coming into the week i'm technically
bullish on this market because we are in
an uptrend
but i'm not taking any long trades so
long as we're around this major
resistance zone i'm looking for a
pullback
down lower or a breakout
above these highs and then maybe you
pull back into this zone and i have
multiple strategies that take advantage
of whatever the market does but i don't
want to
convolute this analysis process too much
so we're just focusing on the daily
chart and four hour chart
at the moment and that's what i'm seeing
on this market on those time frames
and once again it's not it's not the
most important indicator in the world
almost reliable indicator but we do have
the rsi
overbought as we're coming into this
major structure zone so
if this price if this daily candle does
close lower than the previous bar
there's a very very good chance we're
going to see price action continue lower
in the week to come but in the grand
scheme of things that would just be a
correction
not necessarily a trend reversal so be
cautious if you're going short up here
and recognize that if you are going
short here this is a counter trend trade
and you should be conservative with your
targets
and the final market i wanted to analyze
today because it's
looking pretty interesting is canada
versus the japanese yen
we're on the daily chart here and we are
coming up or we are currently in
um a major resistance zone
so if i extend this zone out paint it
red
uh you can see that we have had several
tests of this zone we nearly got up
there you could make the zone a little
lower if you wanted to
and we had uh multiple declines from
this zone
now the fact that we've come back up
into the zone so quickly without a big
sell-off recently you can see these
sell-offs get
less and less as we get into this zone
that leads me to believe that it's
possible we could see this zone break
out to the upside
but in the medium term in the short term
we are in this zone and we are seeing
bearish price action
in that zone so on lower time frames
this could provide some nice trading
opportunities
let me draw in what i'm seeing
visually this is our immediate
resistance zone the next one would
obviously be up here at this the swing
highest that
doesn't take a rocket scientist to
identify those as major levels
um but as for support that's a little
bit trickier because we have this
sort of unstructured consolidation in
here
but i would probably keep an eye on this
swing
low in here that has been tested
multiple times
as resistance and most recently as
support
so if price action does double top here
and rolls over we could see
this consolidation continue between
these two levels
that's definitely a possibility
the next support zone i would be
interested in trading
is all the way down here so price action
does roll over from here
maybe we get a short bounce out of here
and then we continue to the downside
this zone in here would definitely be an
interesting zone to look for
price action patterns to go long from
again
i'm not just saying this for the sake of
it there's reason
behind this chaos and that is that if we
do get a price action pattern down here
you get a nice risk reward ratio back up
to the next
structure zone and the reason why this
level in here is potentially important
is because it's been tested multiple
times
excuse me there's a lot of building
going on here a lot of loud trucks
driving by so i apologize for that if
you can hear that in the background
but yeah you can see that this this most
immediate support zone has been tested
multiple times as support so that's why
i'm identifying those this level as
important
and this one down here again the same as
this
resistance level up here it's pretty
obvious that this is a major level
as for what's currently happening up in
this price range if i drop down on a
four hour chart
there's not much going on here um
in current price action we're just sort
of consolidating here i wouldn't quite
call this a double top
just because it's really just a just a
period of consolidation
in here we haven't had enough of a
decline for this to be considered a
double top according to my
the way i analyze markets but on an even
lower time frame a one hour time frame
uh there are potential trading
opportunities in here and i can see one
already that's already played out
so if i zoom right in remember we've
already
identified this as a major resistance
level and we did that we could have done
that before price action even got up
into this level so it's been tested
twice
as resistance and multiple times as
support looking left
so as price action has come up into this
zone on a lower time frame such as a one
hour chart
we had a really nice um
rsi divergence situation here so we had
this
impulsive move up into this resistance
zone which sent the rsi
overbought pretty quickly and it's been
consistently up in this upper range of
this
oscillator which indicates that we've
had strong momentum to the upside
for quite some time for a couple of days
here on this one hour chart
as we came up into this zone we made
this swing high with a very big red
candle here
in context of recent price action so in
relation to
this move here and even from down here
this is the largest red candle we've had
since this move began
so that's a warning sign right there if
you're long particularly if i was long
from from anywhere down here this
i would be certainly training my stop
loss very tight here or
taking my position off my long position
off and if you're more conservative
then you wait for uh this to happen
which is the price action makes this
high sells off a bit
then comes back up and makes another
high and then we get a bearish engulfing
candle
in here couple that with rsi divergence
meaning the rsi made it high and then on
the second high
it made a lower high and we have a very
good case
for certainly taking profit if you're
long from down here
but also potentially going short here in
expectation of
a sell-off so let me
draw out what this might look like you
might go short
this is how i would personally trade it
i'm not telling you what to do but this
is how i would trade it and i do have a
strategy that allows me to take
advantage of situations like this
but i would go short at the close of
this
bearish engulfing candle given the fact
we just had rsi divergence
in fact if i was being really aggressive
i could even go short at this candle
here
but let's be let's do the conservative
example
so price action puts in a rsi divergence
top in the middle of this major
resistance zone
and i go short i would have a 1 atr
stop loss above this swing high so my
atr is up here
on the left up there and
at the time of this price action pattern
that was around 10 pips
so i would have 10 pips above the swing
high that would put me at about 16 pips
around there and already we have
a greater than one to one risk reward
all the way down
into this 50 ema no less so that would
have been a great
price target if you were trading this
way
because remember this is a counter trend
trade up in here
on the daily chart even though we're in
consolidation
this is bullish consolidation i mean
we're making higher highs
higher lows so going short here i'm not
expecting this market to roll over
from here necessarily i mean the odds of
that are much
uh slower than simply just having a
short-term sell-off
from this zone so right there we have a
great trading opportunity
that we could have taken advantage of
using very simple price action patterns
rsi divergence for confirmation of that
pattern and
just a one atr stop loss above the swing
high that alone gave us
a 1.7 risk reward profile if you were to
consistently
trade a strategy that got you a 1.7 risk
reward profile on average
you would only need if you're risking
one percent of your account per trade
you'd only need to win
uh 37
of the time in order to break even and
if you go and back test
this approach to trading so identifying
major structure zones on the higher time
frame either a daily or four hour chart
and you draw out these zones like this
you wait for price action to get in
there
and then give you a price action pattern
such as this pattern here
uh rsi divergence it's not quite a
double top but you combine this pattern
with a bearish engulfing candle so you
have this
swing high sell-off another rally
followed by a bearish engulfing candle
where the rsi prints divergence if you
were to go and
test this with conservative targets such
as targeting the
50 ema or the nearest structure level if
we drop down our 15-minute chart i'm
sure that we have structure in here and
we sure do
you could have targeted this swing high
in here which still
would have given you a greater than one
to one risk reward profile
it's not difficult to turn a strategy
like this into a profitable strategy by
layering
market conditions on top of each other
like this so that's it for this market
that's all i had to say
i already went on a bit too long than i
wanted to
about this market but i hope you found
that interesting
finally here we have the s p 500 which
is defying all logic all reason and
continuing higher despite the covert
and socio-economic madness that is
happening in the world
the stock market u.s stock market
continues to soar higher
i don't understand why but i don't need
to because i'm a technical
analyst trader i trade price action
price action leads away i don't care
about fundamentals i don't i rarely
check the news
because quite frankly no one knows
what's going on least of all
journalists and financial experts
academic financial experts they don't
have a clue what's coming what's going
on
price action doesn't lie this market has
been making
higher lows and higher highs all
of last year
so we had this massive sell-off when
covert began
we retraced a significant amount of that
sell-off
we found resistance at previous support
then we made a higher low and we rallied
broke above
this resistance zone once that happened
i was bullish on this market and since
that
happened nothing has changed to
change my opinion about this market so
we are making higher highs
higher lows on this market
and we continue to up to
recent price action there is nothing in
this
price action to lead me to believe that
there's any reason
this market is bearish or going to turn
bearish anytime soon
of course it absolutely could at the
drop of a hat doesn't take much to send
this market
soaring lower but at present i'm not
um bearish on this market i'm very
bullish on this market price action
continues to move higher and what i'm
waiting to see
before i change my opinion on this
market
is a one two three move
to the downside so we need to sell off
make a low
have a weak rally that produces a lower
high
and then break that low with another
move lower
and if we get back below this 50 ema
that could be a potential sign
that we are going to see a correction a
significant correction
or at least a period of consolidation
where we just trade sideways for a while
but at the moment we are bullish we've
just broken into new highs on this
market
and so potential support zones i'm
looking at
if i zoom out certainly in here
this could act as a major support level
to this market
and also down in here so you can see
that
this zone down here acted as support
resistance
support twice in here we had a nice
clean double bottom after this
consolidation period
and then the market shot higher from
there
so i'm bullish on this market we're at
all-time highs so there's nowhere to
predict a potential resistance zone
other than maybe
even handle numbers but i'm not going to
bother doing that on this market because
i don't actually trade this market as
actively as the other ones i just
thought it'd be interesting
to just draw attention to this market
this markets price action because this
market does
lead a lot of the world's other markets
in this general sentiment that traders
around the world have about the global
economy
and right now due to all sorts of
fundamental reasons
money printing banks printing money to
buy stocks
to support the quote-unquote economy
uh you know the everyday people in the
process of course making
all these uh wall street guys super rich
not sure how that helps the little guy
but
anyway that's the world we live in and i
don't see that changing anytime soon and
so this market is going to continue
moving higher in the near term as far as
i can tell
one other level to pay attention to
other than this 50 ema which can
certainly act as support at times
on this market if we look left here you
can see that it does have a history of
acting as
support once we do get above it and
we're trending above it
so there's definitely that potential
here that this 50 ema could act to
support we have multiple swing lows and
highs in here
in confluence with this ema that could
add
significance to this level if we pull
back into this swing high
that you know we have a pretty weak
trend here but it is a bullish trend
and so this level in here could act as
support push this market higher again
otherwise these swing lows in here
in confluence with this 50 ema could
also push this market higher so i'm
keeping an eye on that
going forward but that's all i have to
say about this market is
actually being quite boring to be honest
it's just chugging along chugging higher
like i said until we get a one two three
move
sell-off which we haven't had in quite a
while the most recent one i can see on
this
market is this one here where we found
support on this with the ema
then we did the old one two three move
lower
but we found support after doing that
on these previous structure levels
we had the one two three move found
support and then all we did was
consolidate
from there so there's always that
potential to happen again here
we could see a one two three move lower
into this support level and then we
could just consolidate for a while
in here uh which is certainly
on the cards given um the circumstances
uh even though there's a lot of money
printing going on a lot of share
buybacks and all that crap
uh that doesn't necessarily mean that
this market's going to shoot higher
it just means it's probably just going
to be boring stable
sideways price action at least for a
while until
that is no longer sustainable as a
solution to what's going on in the world
economically speaking and that's it for
today's market analysis
let's have a quick look at the economic
calendar see what's coming this week
turn off all these non-event news items
and
look at that there is nothing happening
this week
i don't know if that's an error or if
there's just
literally nothing happening this week
but till friday we have
core retail sales that'll be a big one
for the us dollar
retail sales data coming in expected to
be negative obviously but that's priced
into the market so that doesn't
necessarily mean the us dollar will sell
off
depending on how bad the numbers come
out there may be a knee jerk reaction
but
not expecting much out of this market
everyone knows what's going on
retail sales it's not a big shock if
they come out
as a bad number that's already priced
into the market uh whatever
the fed chair says could influence
markets as well
but again he's likely to say things to
satiate investors and market
participants so
whatever he says could either have no
effect on the market or maybe a bullish
effect
even though everything is wrong in the
world
so that's it for today i hope you found
that interesting and
enlightening educational whatever again
don't trade on this information i know
just as much as you do
this is just me uh expressing my
opinions on the markets based on my
experience in the markets
and i could be completely wrong about
all of this and in fact i quite often am
so treat this more as treat this more
like entertainment than instructional
content
this is just if you're new to trading
this is intended to give you an idea of
what you should be paying attention to
in your own trading you're looking for
good risk reward opportunities and
zones of price action that give you that
good risk reward opportunity
and also give you a high probability of
being right
in your trades or making money in your
trades being right in your trades is
different to making money in your trades
but you want to make money in your
trades to do that you need a good risk
reward ratio
in order to identify good risk reward
ratio you need to identify good
structure levels
or good pullback levels using something
like a 50 ema
or just just naked price action if you
want to learn more about this stuff
you can head over to my blog just go to
the artoftrading.com
if you want to learn how to trade i'm
not paid by my trading mentor i have no
affiliation no affiliate link or
anything like that
but i highly recommend checking out
stephen hart over at the trading channel
he taught me nearly everything i know
certainly everything i know about
strategy development and it's worked for
me
so if you're struggling as a trader go
and check him out if you just want to
learn more about trading in general go
and check my blog out or my other videos
if you want to learn pine script of
course i have the pine script mastery
course over at panscriptmastery.com
and a free basics course over there that
will show you how to create your own
trading view indicators
and that's all i have to say i'll see
you in the next video have a great week
good luck with your trading be safe out
there i'm in a three-day
lockdown here in brisbane because then
another curved breakout so
yeah i'm gonna be doing a lot of work as
usual
that doesn't change for me but i'll be
sitting in my office doing a lot of work
this week
and if you're doing the same then i just
wish you all a safety in the world
for your family stay healthy stay safe
and um good luck with everything that's
going on this year is certainly going to
be an interesting one
not just in the markets all right take
care everyone i'll see you in the next
video
love you bye