Market Analysis - CARDANO, BITCOIN, S&P500 & MAJOR FOREX PAIRS 25th January

hi traders welcome back to another
weekly market analysis
it's been an interesting week in the
markets um the crypto markets and the
forex markets
and today i want to do something a
little bit different first i'm going to
cover
the analysis from last week's video just
to show how that played out pretty much
everything played out
to a t which is interesting it's not
uncommon for that
for an experienced trader to be able to
predict the market movements
with pretty close accuracy but it
doesn't happen every time
obviously and that's why we must manage
our risk responsibly and conservatively
just in case we're wrong but today's
video is going to demonstrate the power
of consistency in your technical
analysis and just how simple this
process can be
so later on in the video after we recap
some of the markets i covered last week
i'm going to
break down the major forex pairs all of
the majors so
euro dollar dollar yen pound dollar
dollar swiss
um even the commodity pairs us cad
aussie dollar new zealand dollar and i'm
going to rapid fire my trend analysis
for that pair just to show you how
quickly
you can identify a trending market and
momentum in a market
to inform your trading decisions and it
doesn't have to be
very complicated at all i can determine
the direction of a market
in a matter of seconds just by looking
at the chart and i'll show you how i do
that today
but first let's look at bitcoin
so last week i was saying that this
market as it moves lower
was likely to be drawn at this 50 ema
and that this
50 ema was likely to act as support and
push this market up
the reason for that is first of all
there's historical precedence
for this happening this happens quite
often on bitcoin once this market starts
trending
the daily 50 ema often acts as support
and resistance
on this market that's common for most
markets when the market is going
sideways like you see in here that is no
longer the case this ema is mostly
ignored
but once we begin trending making
lower lows and lower highs the 50 ema
can provide nice bounces
and retracements in a bear market to
trade off and that's what i was
expecting
out of this market when we were moving
lower and that's pretty much what
happened here so let's drop down to a
four hour chart
now this ema you see here is a daily
50 ema drawing over my intraday charts
so this is a 50 day ema drawing over the
four hour chart
i believe this functionality has now
been added to the actual
default inbuilt ema the trading view
offers so you can now select the time
frame you want but you can see that
their variation of this smoothes out
the moving average which isn't quite
accurate to
how this works because obviously if we
go down to a one hour chart
we have 24 one hour bars
per day and my higher time frame
indicator is drawing the previous day's
50-day ema value over current intraday
price action
and then when a new day starts it starts
drawing the previous day and so on
and what that results in is this stepped
version
of this higher time frame ema if you
want to play around with this just come
up to the indicators box and just type
in htf
ema and you can find my script here just
look for zen in the art
of trading and this is my higher time
frame ema
that i'm using in this video so let's
drop down to the five-minute chart
and go and see what was happening when
price action was testing this
uh 50-day ema on an intraday time frame
so there are a number of ways we could
have taken advantage of this
test of the 50-day ema on bitcoin
the first one i see this market was
coming down quite
aggressively with a lot of momentum down
into this 50-day ema
when we got down here we put in a low
rallied
put in a lower low and we printed rsi
divergence
so that's a sign that momentum is
running out to the downside you can see
that this initial leg was quite
large quite momentous then we had a
pretty
decent pullback then we had another
decent leg down but it was
shorter than the first leg then we had a
really weak bounce
off right off this 50-day ema and then
we had a really shallow
retracement before we got a big bullish
engulfing candle rsi divergence
a nice doji right here this is a sign
that price action might be responding to
the 50-day ema
there's traders looking at that time
frame on these higher time frames like
the daily chart
or the four-hour chart and they're
buying this market
as it's testing this 50-day ema we also
have the fact
that this 50-day ema was coming down in
confluence with these lows
so we have structure complements with
this 50-day ema
momentum is clearly to the upside if you
zoom out your chart
on the daily chart we are clearly
in an uptrend on this market so there's
a lot of traders watching this 50-day
ema looking to buy this market
with the hopes of it rallying back to
re-test these highs and so on this five
minute chart
we had an opportunity to buy this market
as it responded from the 50-day ema
so the way i personally traded this was
i went long
on my uh max account with a 1 atr stop
below this low
so the atr at the time of this candle
closing was 412 you can see up here
on my indicators list the atr value
there
it was 412 so i had my stop loss 412
pips below this swing low
plus 460 pips from the entry down to the
swing low
which gave me an 872 pip stop loss
807 close enough
and uh my one to one target was hit
pretty quickly it only took about half
an hour to hit my first target
stop loss to break even and i'm now
trailing my stop-loss riding this market
higher
and it's since consolidated a fair bit
and it's just going sideways at the
moment
but that's one way to take advantage of
this top-down analysis
approach to trading and technical
analysis
um one other way you could have traded
this as a there's multiple ways you
could have traded this
price action situation uh one would be
to wait for a break of this
sort of upper trend line so this trend
line here had
three tests before we broke out of it we
had the initial
high a retest and then another retest
and then this candle broke and closed
above this trend line you could have
gone along there if you're more
conservative
stop loss below the swing low you could
have caught this bounce
uh one other way you could have traded
this was just to wait for confirmation
so a higher
higher high higher close candle so as we
came off this 50-day ema
this candle here closed higher than the
previous bar
so did this one here but that's an
aggressive entry uh waiting for
further confirmation you could have
waited for this candle here to close
higher than this candle that's showing
that
buyers are stepping in and one final
method would be to wait till price
actually got back above this 55-minute
ema
and then look for flag patterns trend
continuation patterns
uh or just simple pullbacks and price
action patterns like hema candles
or yeah there's plenty of flag patterns
occurring after this uh response from
the 50-day ema
so this is just a really simple um set
up
on bitcoin just to demonstrate how easy
it is to
identify trading opportunities the
hardest part about trading is not
identifying good places to buy or sell
it's to have the discipline to be
consistent and having a good money
management plan
so that you can compound your account
over the long term identifying good
places
to execute trades is arguably the
easiest part of trading
that's what lures a lot of traders into
failure is they they think that trading
is easy because it's easy to identify
good places to buy or sell
but then they can't hold the position
for the the
long term rally and they take their
profits too soon
and their winners over the long term do
not make up for their losses
that's the number one way most traders
fail
at trading but anyway that's it for
bitcoin there's not much more to say
about this
i'm expecting this market to rally a
little bit higher from here at least
up into these lows so these lows may
act as resistance on this market now
that we've sort of had this
close below these swing lows in here we
do have like a one two three
move uh we didn't violate this low in
here just yet we didn't close below this
low so
it's possible this is just a complex
pullback and we're going to see another
re-test of the highs
so personally i'm paying close attention
to what happens when price action gets
up into this
34 000 range my stop-loss is at break
even
from down here so whatever happens
doesn't bother me now but if we do
get a price action pattern here if we
rally up and we double top here
or we get a large wicked engulf uh
bearish
pin bar candle that's a horrible looking
candle but you get the idea
then i'll probably take my profit off
there but i am hoping
for more of a rally out of this 50-day
ema response
so that's it for bitcoin uh one other
market that i covered last week
was eurodollar we we're looking at this
support zone in here
i was expecting these swing lows here
and this 50-day ema
again to act as support on this market
and i was expecting a rally from this
zone and we got that
i didn't actually personally get a
trading opportunity in this zone
but since the response this large
bullish engulfing candle off this 50 ema
in this structure zone
i've been stalking trend continuation
opportunities on lower time frames
and there's been a few opportunities on
these intraday time frames to capture
this rally
which i have been taking advantage of
but i'm not going to go into detail
about that because this video will be
too long if i
do that so anyway what i was seeing here
the reason i thought this structure
level would be important
is that it's the last support level that
this market printed on the
charts uh before we had this rally in
this
sell-off this is the last line of
defense looking left
uh before this market rolls over into a
bearish trend
and so if this bullish trend this
bullish you can see we're making higher
highs and higher lows here
if this is going to change this is the
last level of defense for the bulls
on this higher time frame daily and
weekly chart so if this market is still
considered bullish by investors
and bigger traders bigger funds then
they'll consider this level a
nice discount and they'll step in to buy
this market
and that's what we're seeing here at the
moment but now we have come up into a
another structural level this sort of
zone in here which may act as resistance
and push this market back down
uh and if we get that then we may see a
bearish
correction come into this market so i'm
keeping a keen eye on this zone right
now where price action is currently
especially on intraday time frames like
the four hour chart you can see we are
seeing some selling pressure kicking in
some big wicks here that price action
can't get above and that's this swing
high in here
price action has tried to take out this
high but it's struggling here
so if it can't find support
in here somewhere and give us another
one two three move up
into this price zone here then it's
likely we're going to see this roll over
to the downside again
so yeah keeping a keen eye on these
intraday time frames one hour four hour
chart
especially this one hour 50 ema keeping
an eye on these lows
to see if price action will come down
and break through them that'll be a sign
that we're probably going to roll over
to the downside again
have another sell-off and of course
these situations in here where we have
these big sell-offs or big rallies
from these structure zones the whole
reason i'm identifying these zones
taking the time to identify them
is because we can capture really nice
intraday trading opportunities on these
lower time frames
when these situations occur so as we had
this rally
out of this support zone we had rsi
divergence
on the i believe the one hour chart once
we got that
we had a nice rally out of here pull
back another rally
pull back several bullish engulfing
candles off this
50 15 minute 50 ema then price action
rallied from there
we've had flag pattern opportunities to
enter this market
stop loss below the swing low entry at
the confirmation of the breakout
there's a nice pullback opportunity in
here rallied out of this 50
15 minute ema pullback bullish and
golfing candle
nice opportunity to continue riding this
market higher
several winning trading opportunities in
this zone
so that's it for euro dollar
going forward i'm not really sure what
to expect we are in the middle of
nowhere right now
if this swing low in here does not act
as resistance
this structure zone in here then we're
likely
to continue higher here back up to these
swing highs
but if we do find resistance in the zone
and roll over i'll have to reassess go
back to the drawing board see what
happens when price
action gets down in here or on this
50-day ema if the 50-day ema cannot hold
and we do not get a price action
confirmation pattern in this zone that
this zone is holding
then it's likely we're going to roll
over to the downside and there could be
some nice short trading opportunities
in there to short this market if it does
indeed roll over
and then of course the next level i'll
be looking for
to take my profit if i do go short or to
go long as a counter trend trading
opportunity
is this previous resistance swing high
zone in here
this zone is likely to act as support if
we do get down here
so those are the levels i'm looking at
this swing high this swing low
and where price action is currently if
we do roll over and retest this zone i'm
not looking for long trades in here
anymore because
the more times a structure zone gets
tested especially if we print a
lower high here the more likely it is to
break and roll over so that's it for
euro dollar
the final market was ada usd tether
we looked at last week i was saying as
price action was up here in this
resistance zone at 38 cents i was saying
that i
had sold my position up on these wicks
on a 15-minute chart
i was looking to buy this market back at
34 cents
expecting a big rally out of this
previous
resistance zone and that's exactly what
we got
the market rolled over here tagged 34
cents in this previous structure
high and then had a nice rally out of
there since then we did roll over
but that doesn't matter to me because i
managed to
have a few profitable trading
opportunities in this zone so the first
one was right here
uh this is a five minute chart again i
had a limit order
set on this market at 34 cents because
i wanted to go to bed and this was
around 10 o'clock that this um
previous structure high was tested and i
was winding down getting ready for bed
so i didn't want to watch the charts
and so i just got filled on my limit
order 34 cents the market did roll over
a little bit
from there but we found support on this
previous structure
high and if you're awake at this time
there was a nice bullish engulfing
candle off this
high nice tweezer bottom pattern
indicating
buying pressure and from that zone we
had a nice rally
back up into resistance so the next
morning when i checked my chart
i noticed around here at 10 a.m my time
that we had just printed rsi divergence
yet again
so we've got one high and then a higher
high
the rsi is printing a high and then a
lower high we have this large
pin bar rejection candle shooting style
candle
right in this resistance zone near 38
cents
so it sold my position my trading
position in cardano
and since then the market has rolled
over yet again
and we've blown straight through this
previous support level so that's no
longer
in play and so what i'm waiting for now
on this market if i go back out to the
daily chart
i am waiting for either a breakout
in a new highs so i'll buy a breakout
above 40 cents
otherwise i'm just sitting on my hands
and i'm waiting for this market to come
down and
retest this structure support zone down
here near 28 cents
if that can happen in confluence with
this 50-day ema
that would be perfect if we can come
down here
and find support on this 50-day ema and
this previous swing
low if i get a good price action pattern
in this zone that i back tested and
found to be profitable i will be
entering along uh down here at near 28
cents
so that's it for last week's market
analysis recap let's quickly go through
all of the major forex pairs
and what i'm expecting out of them this
week this information is intended to
inform
your intraday directional bias
this you shouldn't trade off this
information first and foremost
this is for educational purposes but
this is what i'm seeing in the markets
and how i'm interpreting what the
markets are telling me
and how i personally plan to act on that
information going forward
next market pound dollar bullish
we are making higher highs
without violating previous swing lows
came down here didn't violate this low
we've since made a higher high than
these highs
this is a good market to be stalking
long trading opportunities on intraday
time frames
like this 4-hour chart we already have a
really nice setup here
uh bullish engulfing candle right on
this 54-hour ema
after making a higher high i've got this
one two three move here
great trading opportunity there stop
loss below the swing low target
the previous highs looking for trend
continuation to the upside
that's how i would approach this market
moving on to the next market we have usn
this market is in consolidation
according to my analysis
we were making lower highs
and lower lows
but we recently made a move that
violated the previous swing low in this
bearish trend
and what i'm looking for in these
situations is the the highest resistance
since the previous swing low so this was
the previous swing low
we rallied we made a high then we made a
new swing low
i am paying attention to that previous
swing low and if it gets violated by
price action which happened here
then i consider this market in
consolidation and what i'm waiting for
is price action confirmation of a
direction so i'm waiting for this
market to either make a one two three
move that violates this high
if we get this then i'll start stalking
long trading opportunities
otherwise i'm just waiting on this
market it's probably going to go
sideways and we'll just sort of trickle
around here and
not really have a directional bias and
if we break out to the downside
then i'll begin stalking short trading
opportunities again but for now i'm
sitting on my hands because this market
is not giving me a clear directional
bias
next market us canada this is a bearish
market according to my analysis
we're technically in a bit of
consolidation here because we are
struggling to break these lows but we
have made a lower low and this market
has been making lower highs
and lower lows for quite some time now
so until we violate this swing high in
here and this
get back above get trading back above
this 50 day ema
i'm expecting this market to continue
lower and so any trading opportunities
i'm looking for in intraday time frames
will be
bearish not really looking for long
trading opportunities on this market
unless we come into a major support
level and the next major support level
that i see would be down around these
swing lows
and we're still a little way away from
there so stalking bearish trades on this
market
next market we have aussie dollar this
market is bullish
reason for that is we're making higher
highs
higher lows and that hasn't changed yet
we're testing previous resistance we're
struggling to get below it
i'm expecting this market to move higher
at some point we are going sideways we
have been going sideways for a couple of
weeks now so on
four hour time frames and below we are
in consolidation on those time frames
but technically this daily trend is
still bullish
until we either violate this swing low
in here or we make a one two three move
that gets back below this 50 50-day ema
so i am stalking long trades
on this market next market u.s swiss
this is bearish
definitely bearish reason for that is
we're clearly making lower highs and
lower lows
and we haven't violated that pattern yet
we've come up to retest these this
previous swing high
but we have since begun to roll over so
i'm expecting this market to continue
lower
until it gives us a reason to think
otherwise
the only way that will happen is if we
get a one two three move that gets back
above this 50-day ema and breaks
this this previous swing high in here so
bearish on
u.s swiss moving on to the next market
new zealand us dollar we are bullish
higher highs higher lows that is not
changed we are above the 50-day ema
expecting this market to continue higher
moving on to the next market we have
s p 500 i analyzed this a couple weeks
ago
i said that this previous swing high in
here was likely to act as support
same with this 50-day moving average we
haven't quite come down to test this
moving average yet
but we are printing higher highs and
this bullish trend
is continuing to the upside i had a nice
trading opportunity at this previous
swing high in here
and now just writing this market out
waiting to see what happens
trailing my stop-loss but at the moment
bullish on this pair
expecting this trend to continue and so
far that is playing out
as expected and the final market in this
rapid
market analysis series is gold
this is in consolidation we were bullish
for a little while here there are some
nice bullish trading opportunities
after this one two three move capturing
this move here
was a nice opportunity on intraday time
frames
but since then we've rolled over and
we've violated that previous low
so now i'm expecting this market to
continue sideways between these two
levels
if price action gets back down to this
low could be a nice buying opportunity
in there
and likewise if we get up to these highs
could be a nice selling opportunity in
there
but at the moment i have no directional
bias on this market
and that's it for today's market
analysis video
i hope you found that interesting i just
wanted to demonstrate to you just how
quickly you can
perform this analysis and identify your
intraday directional
bias before i let you go let's jump over
to the economic calendar and see what
we're in store for this week
so here we are on the economic calendar
with the filter only set to
high impact events and there's not much
on this week we have the fomc
statement from the fed that's usually a
pretty important announcement
um apart from that it's pretty business
as usual otherwise we've got core price
inflation
for the aussie dollar and advanced gdp
for the us dollar that's it so it's
probably going to be a pretty quiet time
in the forex
markets this week but as we all know uh
quiet times in the markets usually
precede
violent storms in the market so keep
your wits about you
don't get too complacent i'm sure
there's plenty of volatility on the way
this year but we are off to a slow start
in 2021
which is not always a bad thing it's
nice to have some time to
ease into your trading so that's it for
this week i don't want to keep this
video any longer than this
so i'll see you in the next one take
care guys
[Music]
you