Market Analysis - NOVAVAX, BITCOIN, S&P500 & MAJOR FOREX PAIRS 1st February 2021

hey traders welcome back to another
weekly market analysis video
my name is matt from zen in the art of
trading and today i'm going to be
breaking down
all of the markets you see here on the
right uh my watch list
there's been a lot of interesting
movements in the markets over the past
week
and let's not waste any time let's get
straight into this week's video
so first up here we have euro dollar
last week i was pointing out this
uh area down here that price action was
playing around with this
50-day ema and this previous swing low
this is a price action zone that was
likely to act to support
and price has been playing around with
it a couple of times now
we've had this first bounce off this
level
and since then uh traders have obviously
been watching this zone
for buying opportunities we had another
bounce here and we had a third bounce
here
last week so this is clearly a key level
the only thing concerning me here is the
fact that we have
lower highs printing onto the chart now
so that's a sign of weakness for this
market
if this was a important level for the
bulls
i think we would have seen a bigger
rally from here
and so i'm not going along anymore from
this structure zone down here i've
already
taken a couple of trading opportunities
from this level and i took my profits up
in this
other resistance zone this is another
zone that's been tested
a couple of times so we had this
resistance in here then it acted as
support
now it's acted as resistance again and
price action is just bouncing between
these two levels
now how long that continues for i have
no idea obviously i don't have a crystal
ball
all i know is that once these levels get
tested multiple times
i lose my directional bias we're in a
range now we're going sideways
and i'm not interested in trading this
market so i'm flat on this market
i'm no longer looking for shorts in this
zone and so these are the zones i'm
looking for
going forward if price action can hold
these lows
and we start to rally to the upside uh i
will start
taking any trend continuation trades on
a four hour time frame that meet my
rules
if we get this one two three move
breakout on the daily chart
then i will start looking for uh trend
bullish trend continuation trades on a
lower time frame four hour one hour
chart
and then if price action can get back up
into these highs this would be a good
zone to take profit
and or look for short trading
opportunities double tops
rsi divergence big wicked
shooting star candles that sort of thing
whatever meets your trading plan rules
so these are the levels i'm looking at
going forward
based on the way i trade the markets if
you've watched my other market analysis
videos and you know how i like to take
advantage of these zones i look for
price action patterns
within these zones and i use them as
reference points
for taking profit on any trades i'm
already in so that's it for euro dollar
i don't have a directional bias
for this market going forward i'm
expecting more sideways action
but if we do get that one two three move
out of this zone here
that will be a good sign that we're
heading higher back up into this
resistance zone
alternatively if we do break down of the
downside
this zone could be a great trend
continuation
zone to look for short trading
opportunities so keep an eye on these
key levels uh going into the next few
weeks next up we have us yen
so this market last week i was saying
had entered a period of consolidation
because we were in a downtrend we were
making lower highs lower lows
but then we had this impulsive move here
that broke this previous
lower high and that throws the trend
into question
now i don't class this as a bullish
reversal just yet
it's potential there's a potential there
for a bullish reversal but what this
really means is that this market has
finished its downtrend and is now in
consolidation
until we get that continuation and we
got that last week
so we now have this one two three move
with a higher low
and a higher high i'm now bullish on
this market so i'm waiting
for uh intraday pullbacks
price action patterns to ride this
market to the upside
and if this market does continue higher
this resistance zone up here is a zone
i'll be looking to
take profit in if we get any price
action patterns like rsi divergence for
example
there's several different exit reasons i
use in these zones
they're simple exit reasons but i do
have multiple ways to get out of my
positions
if these patterns occur and i've back
tested these patterns to prove they have
an edge over the markets
and by edge all i mean is when these
price actions occur within these zones
there's a higher likelihood
of the market rolling over than breaking
through it
and so i like to take profit there and
depending on what price action patterns
we get
i like to go short there too so that's
what i'm looking at these zones for
the reason why i'm looking at this zone
up here as potential resistance
is because it's a level that's been
tested multiple times as support and
resistance
so it was tested as resistance here and
there's support through here
support here and a little bit of
consolidation through here
these levels are never crystal clear
clean levels on your chart that's what's
more of a price zone that's why i drew
out this zone here
and there's always a chance that price
action will ignore it all together so
these are not
sure things don't place trades just
because price action gets into these
zones
that's why we wait for price action
confirmation on lower time frames
and with that being said the next
support level i'm looking for is this
zone in here there's two reasons for
that first reason is it's been tested as
support
multiple times in the past and a little
bit of resistance
as well and but the most important
reason
why i'm looking at this zone is because
it was the most recent structure
resistance level
uh the price action printed so we had
this one two
three move here in a typical
healthy training environment if price
action does
trickle down here buyers will step in to
buy this market up
from this previous swing high you've all
heard the saying
previous resistance turns potential
support and vice versa
previous support can turn potential
resistance that's what i'm expecting out
of this market because we did have a
nice clean breakout here
of this high so this would be a great
time to drop down to your four hour
charts
and wait for pullback opportunities so
what i'd be waiting for here
is price action to have a little bit of
a pullback and then give me a price
action pattern
like a bullish engulfing candle it's one
of my favorite patterns
because it's a clear sign of price
action momentum reversal
if we get that above this 50 ema that'll
be a great
opportunity to go long according to my
rules that's how i'm approaching this
market
i'm not telling you how you should trade
these are just my ideas
this is the way i trade and all of this
is
for educational purposes so that's what
i'm looking for on this market
alternatively if we don't get that pull
back trade there could be a nice
structure trade setting up in here if
price action
does come all the way down here we'd
probably still be above the 50 ema
could be a great spot to look for double
bottoms for that trend
potential trend continuation again
there's no sure thing here this could
easily just roll straight through this
level
but the whole idea here is that
approaching markets this
way consistently on a consistent basis
and managing your risk
consistently and conservatively can give
you a great edge over the markets over
the long term
these particular setups tend to win more
often than they lose
and they can often provide phenomenal
risk reward trading opportunities so you
have a
tight stop loss here and you can often
get a really nice risk reward back up
to the next structure resistance level
these setups here are my personal
favorite to trade
and i'm keeping a keen eye on this
market going into this week let's move
on to pound dollar
pound dollar is pretty boring i'm not
paying attention to this market at the
moment
we are at a potential structure
resistance level reason for that
is this level was a support level way
back in the past back in march of 2018
we had a couple of tests at this level
we are now coming back up and struggling
at that level again
there's a very good chance that price
action could roll over from here and we
might see a correction we haven't tested
this 50 ema for quite a while
and uh that's what i'm expecting out of
this market i'm expecting a
consolidation to kick in here we're
already pretty much consolidating this
market is extremely
sluggish to move higher and we have
topped out here for over a week now
and we haven't really had a proper
rollover yet so
um there is the potential but because
the price action has
coiled so strongly here we are very
really tight
here the atr is is shrinking
that usually precedes her breakout and
volatility
meaning these candle sizes are going to
pick up they're going to get bigger
which direction that occurs in i'm not
sure
but given the fact that we are tightly
hugging this top here
it's very possible that we could see a
big breakout at some point in the future
and we'll see momentum pick up rapidly
um i'm not expecting that to happen this
week but
it could so keep an eye on that i'm not
looking to go short
up in this zone at the moment because
there is no momentum
uh occurring and i don't have any price
action patterns here that meet my rules
on lower time frames but anyway that's
what i'm looking for on pound dollar
it's quite boring if we do roll over to
the downside
uh this 50 ema will be important as well
as this
previous structure support and uh
previous resistance level
or zone it's more of a zone but given
how tight
these support and resistance levels are
similar to how eurodollar is testing two
zones really close to each other
i'm not interested in trading these
zones just because they don't provide a
very good risk reward opportunity i'm
far more interested
in waiting for that breakout to the
upside and capturing a trend
continuation trading opportunity
or alternatively seeing price action
consolidate here for a while break down
and maybe catch a short trading
trend continuation opportunity either of
these setups would be
fantastic to see and uh that's what i'm
waiting for on this market
let's move on to the next one which is
pound yen now i
wouldn't normally analyze pound yen in
these videos
because i don't consider it a major pair
like the others it's certainly not a
minor pair
but it's not something i trade often
according to my trading portfolio but
this week i decided to throw it in here
just because it's looking really
interesting
so those of you who do trade this market
this pound yen
we have two really awesome levels
lining up very clear levels nice clean
resistance zone here whoops
nice clean resistant zone to reference
if price action gets up into these
previous swing highs there's a very good
chance that this could have an effect on
the market
profit taking from the bulls and shorts
stepping in could
lead this market to have a nice little
uh bounce down
we're picking up momentum to the upside
the rsi is nearly going overbought not
that that means anything
on its own but as we come up into these
structure levels
when the rsi goes overbought that can be
a extra confirmation signal the price
action is a bit overextended to the
upside
the market is a bit unbalanced and quite
often
when the rsi goes overbought as we test
major structure
resistance levels we see a short-term
retracement
if that happens this is the level i'd be
looking for
to capture potential bullish trades out
of structure based trades
but in the meantime we are in a breakout
mode and price action is going to be
attracted to this upper resistance zone
so this is a great opportunity to drop
down to a four hour chart
to capture these pullbacks so we had a
bullish engulfing candle here
you could have entered long on right in
this zone after price action
broke out of this zone we had a couple
of red candles print here
then we had this trend continuation move
great trading opportunity in here
especially on the four hour and even the
one hour chart so i can see a couple of
opportunities in here
we have several flag patterns that
printed out and
several nice pull back patterns so
here's another bullish engulfing candle
after an impulsive one two three move
pull back into this zone
bullish engulfing kennel the market went
higher winning trade
so really nice to see these markets
picking up volatility as 2021
unravels we did get off to a slow start
but it looks like markets are picking up
now which is
fun to see as traders because you can't
surf a wave if there's no waves
next up let's move on to aussie dollar
so this market
is also testing very interesting level
this is
the first proper test of this previous
resistance
swing high in here of this bullish trend
i consider this just one big move since
we had this
pullback here it's getting a bit messy
so this resistance level in here is very
likely to
turn into potential support we've had a
nice pullback here
now from this swing high we have the 50
ema
coming up into the zone in confluence
from my experience
as a trader there's a very good chance
that we could see at least a short-term
bounce
out of this zone whether or not that
ends up printing a lower high
i don't know but that does not mean that
there's not good trading opportunities
in this zone
on lower time frames like a four hour
chart so here four hour chart
really nice bullish engulfing candle
entry very basic
this is how i like to trade very simple
very rules based
i'm just looking for simple price action
patterns that occur under certain
conditions we also have rsi oversold
here
great opportunity to go long
at the close of that bar stop loss uh
one atr below the low and you've
probably already hit your first target
if you did take this trading opportunity
and if you trade the way i do which is
with a one to one risk reward
on one position and then i trail my
stop-loss on my second position
so depending on what the atr is i'm not
going to measure it out because i
want this video to be as quick as
possible but depending on what the atr
is on this pair you may have already hit
first targets on this potential trading
opportunity
if not then we have a nice double bottom
lining up in here and if this bar closes
in 30 minutes
as a bullish engulfing candle or even
just a green candle
that could be a great double bottom
trading opportunity
to capture that bounce out of this
market and if we do get that bounce
then this swing high up here is
obviously going to be an important zone
price action zone 78 cents even reason
for that the reason why both of these
levels are important to me as always
is because they have been tested as
support and resistance
multiple times so i'm not just looking
for any swing higher like this
or even this i'm looking for levels that
got tested as resistance
and support multiple times
that's how i filter out the noise in the
markets
if there was another zone here that had
multiple tests i would pick whichever
zone had the most amount of tests within
this
price action zone in this particular
case it happened to be
around 78 cents even and given the fact
that it recently pushed
price action down this is an important
level that i'll be paying attention to
in the weeks to come if we do get that
rally whoops that's the wrong drawing
tool
if we do get this bounce out of this
structure zone and these wicks
are telling a story that we may see that
bounce
then this resistance zone up here is a
good level to take profits if you get a
long trading setup
down here or look for short trades
potentially if we get a nice
bearish price action pattern up there
i'm actually bullish going into this
week
and of course if i'm wrong and this
market does
break through to the downside then this
50 ema in confluence with this
previous swing low uh structure zone
could make for great short trading
opportunity so keep an eye on that
if this market does not play out the way
i'm expecting this week
moving on we have us cad us canada
is technically in consolidation at the
moment
so i'm not trading this market at all uh
i'm waiting for a clearer sign i'm
waiting for price action to either
get up into this zone here and give me a
nice
price action pattern that would indicate
that the market wants to roll over
or waiting for it to get down here to
retest these lows
we could see a nice bounce out of that
zone again
and of course alternatively these zones
could make for great trend continuation
zones if we get that break out of this
range
so that's all i'm looking for on us cad
quite boring here sitting on my hands on
this particular market until we get a
clear directional bias
or if we get a nice structure based
pattern in either of these zones
that is something that i would be
interested in trading
but right now there's nothing on this
market that i can take advantage of
moving on we have us swiss this is an
interesting market to pay attention to
this week
reason for that is this is actually in a
bearish trend
still intact we had this impulsive move
here
we have these lower highs printing or
two lower highs
and now we've come back up to retest
this high
and we've got this 50 ema coming down as
well if the bulls cannot push this
market
out of this resistance zone then it's
very likely that this zone
is going to push the market back down to
these lows so this is a great
structure-based trading opportunity here
to capture trend continuation to the
downside
given the fact that we are still in an
intact bearish trend
until this high is broken and closed
above we have this 50 ema in confluence
the only thing that worries me here is
this higher low
and we could see this one two three move
breaking out
but if that happens that's good because
then we can just use this zone as a
reference point to capture
potential trend reversal trades so this
zone right here at around 89 cents even
very important on us swiss going forward
into this week
uh if we do break out of this zone to
the upside
then i'd be keeping a keen eye on this
price action zone in here
if price action can get back up there
around 90 cents even
up until these lows the bodies of these
candles
that would be a good place to take
profit if you do capture a nice
bullish trend reversal trade out of this
market as for support
if i zoom out my chart we don't have a
lot of structure looking left
for many years all the way back to 2014
so this is a very very bearish market in
context
of the past year or two we've come down
quite low and so that's why i'm paying
attention to this zone
a little bit lower than where it
actually reversed from
so even if price action does move a
little bit lower than this low
there's still a potential for this zone
here to act as support
so keep an eye on these two zones going
forward into this week either way
we've got some nice trading
opportunities setting up on this market
so you can see we've got quite a lot of
wicks here
on this market this is the 50-day moving
average the stepped line here you see on
my chart
this is the 50 50 exponential moving
average for this time frame the
four-hour chart so price action is
consolidating above the four-hour
ema but testing the 50-day ema a lot of
wicks here
if we get a bearish engulfing candle up
here or any kind of
double top or a shooting star candle
this could be a great spot to go short
because if you're wrong
you know where to get out of your trade
just above this structure zone
and if you're right you can capture a
nice risk reward
down to these lows or potentially all
the way back down to
structure support on that higher time
frame so keep an eye on that
in the week to come let's move on to the
final forex market which is
new zealand dollar so another
interesting market here we've just
double bottomed down at the structure
support level
we're above the 50 moving average 50 ema
we are trending to the upside we are in
consolidation at the moment
in terms of time we've been going
sideways for quite a while now
but in terms of reading price action
we're still in a bullish trend
and what i mean by that is we have this
move up here
pull back break out of this high pull
back that did not break and close below
this low
the trend is still intact we've come up
to test this
structure resistance level 73 cents even
and we've rolled over back down into
these previous swing highs
this structure level has been tested
multiple times and we've rallied out of
there
and now we're just going sideways in
here until we get
a breaking close below this 50 moving
average and these
let me delete these until we get a break
and close below these lows
and and and this 50 moving average i'm
expecting this market to continue higher
and where will it likely go if it does
continue higher
back up to the swing highs and if we get
up to these swing highs
if you're long from down here at the
structure support level
or you capture some nice intraday
bullish trades
then this could be a good spot to take
profit if we get a price action pattern
that
concerns you or alternatively this is a
good spot that i would look for short
trades
if we get a price action pattern that
meets my rules up here so that's what
i'm looking for on new zealand dollar
quite simple as you can see i don't use
a lot of indicators
just rsi moving average and price action
structure
and then i use that information to
inform my intraday bias
and then i use my intraday trading
strategies to capture
moves in these markets and on that note
uh down here on this four-hour time
frame
we had another one of my favorite
trading setups i've had a few traders
complain on some of my videos
uh that all i ever talk about is bullish
engulfing candles and bearish and
golfing candles
there's a reason for that they work you
know like
it's profitable so why try to fix
something that's not broken
you know trading when it's going well is
boring you're doing the same thing over
and over again
to extract profit out of the markets i'm
perfectly happy
with taking these boring bullish
engulfing candle trades
at structure for so long as it produces
a profit
so that's it for new zealand dollar
there's a couple more markets i want to
cover here
before we wrap this video up so that's
why i'm flying through these
quite rapidly today so bear with me the
next market we have
is gold now gold is in consolidation
this moving average is going sideways
and we're stuck between two structure
levels
obviously the swing low down here will
be important if we get back down there
but in the short term this structure
level up here is
what's uh taking an effect on price
action
so we had this somewhat of a panic cell
here i would call this
capitulation sort of move rsi went
oversold
lots of big red candles and then we
rallied and had this one two three move
out of this uh swing low down here
since then we haven't been able to come
back down and re-test this low
and we've now found support three times
off this 1820 level which was a previous
swing high
looking left so this is the structured
level i'm paying attention to
going into the coming weeks and this is
the resistance level i'm paying
attention to
now there are other levels in here that
you could pay attention to on an
intraday time frame but for me
i like to keep my training simple this
level stands out to me far more than any
of this chop in here
and this uh these swing lows in here are
telling me a story that price action is
struggling to get below
with these big wicks here so at the
moment i'm flat on gold i don't have a
position in gold
but if we get that one two three move
here and we start trending up
i'll consider taking long trades if i
get a setup that meets my rules
and if i do get a setup that means my
rules this is the zone i'd be looking to
take profit in
potentially depending on what price
action patterns occur up here
and alternatively you may be able to get
a nice long trade out of this
zone down here if we do roll over again
but be cautious if you do do that
because we do have the swing low down
here
and so there's plenty of room in here
for stop loss hunts so if you are going
to go long on this market i would wait
for a conservative entry
maybe a large wicked candle or a
double bottom would also be nice to see
so those are the levels i'm looking at
on gold
let's move over to the s p 500
so the s p 500 has been printing new
highs
and we are basically in blue sky
territory so there's no structure
resistance levels to look at
looking left because we're higher than
we've ever been on this market
but last week we did get a classic price
action pattern here we got
rsi divergence price action made a high
then a higher high
while rsi made a lower high after going
overboard
and we got this nice bearish engulfing
candle and
somewhat of a shooting star candle there
whoops that's a terrible
circle right in there so we had this
bearish
rejection day followed by a continuation
of the downside that closed lower than
that previous day's range
and then since then we went sideways for
a bit tried to continue higher
couldn't take out the highs and we've
rolled over quite aggressively to the
downside
taking out these lows what that means to
me
and the way i read price action is that
we are now in consolidation
uh i i'm expecting this market to go
sideways from here
if not completely reverse trend at least
temporarily so we are testing this 50
ema
this is a price zone that i was saying
in my previous couple of videos
i was expecting this to act as support
potentially and i knew that if price
action took out this low a lot of
traders watched this moving average and
the other moving averages
whenever a market is trending like this
and we did in fact have
a bit of buying come off this ema if you
look at this daily candle here
if i drop down to a four hour chart you
can see that we had quite
a rally off that 50-day ema
all the way back up to these swing lows
but since then we've rolled over
and we've closed below these four hour
lows and now we've got volatility
picking up we've got these large wet
candles and small bodies and
price sessions getting a bit wonky
that's normal when something like this
happens
there's a lot of emotional trading going
on a lot of rebalancing from big funds
when
when a sell-off like this occurs and so
i don't have a directional bias on this
market at the moment i'm sitting on my
hands
the way i like to trade a market like
this and bitcoin which we'll get to in a
minute
when it's printing brand new highs is i
like to trail my stop loss
it's just a simple method and i don't
need to be a genius to catch the top
and so after this close below the 50 ema
i'm out i'm flat
on my position i've made the money that
i could
writing this move according to my
trading strategy my trading rules
and now i'm sitting waiting on my hands
i'm not really interested in shorting
this market because
um historically that's a pretty bad idea
but i'm also not looking to get along
right now where price action is i would
much rather get long
uh if we have another continuation to
the downside down into this previous
structure support zone
previous resistance turn support zone
that would be nice to see
would give a nice discount from the
highs a nice reference point
stop loss below the structure zone take
profit back up at these highs
this is a situation i'm far more fond of
than going along where price action is
right now having my stop-loss in the
middle of nowhere in the middle of all
these
wicks not interested in going along on
this market just sitting on my hands
waiting for more information waiting for
price action to lead the way
i don't try to outsmart the market i
just let the market tell me what it
wants to do next
and i've developed methods that give me
a 55 to 60
chance of being right on that call and
then when i'm right i make
a dollar twenty a dollar fifty two
dollars for every dollar i risk
and that's how i like to trade i don't
shoot for home run trades
sometimes i get them usually i don't and
i'm just
all about compounding doing the same
thing over and over again being
consistent
managing my risk responsibly so that i
can compound my profits over the long
term
i'm only 30 years old so i've got plenty
of time
to let this money printing machine
called trading
reap its benefits so i'm patient here
uh unemotional detached just waiting
watching price action
i don't really care if it goes down we
have another flash big
crash that's great because that'll just
give me a good
discount and likewise if we break out to
the upside
i've got nice levels here to reference
to get long again if i need to
so that's it for the s p 500 these are
the two levels i'm looking at
in the near near-term future let's move
on to bitcoin
so bitcoin's been doing what it does
best
uh being a wild monster completely wild
animal
and it's all over the place at the
moment which we haven't seen for quite a
while
once this bullish trend began back in uh
late 2020
or even uh early 2020 back in march we
had this
this big capitulation candle that's a
big day that's a bad day for bitcoin 45
decline in one day and that triggered
the beginning
of value buying from big traders hedge
funds all that sort of stuff
and since then we've just continued
higher now we've come up to 40k we've
doubled in price from previous structure
resistance which was 20k and we're
getting a bit crazy now we're going
sideways volatility is picking up
we're getting a lot more red days we had
a lot of green days here a lot of green
days
picking up momentum to the upside came
into 40k
or even 42k you could call this 42k on
some exchanges it did hit 42k
and now we've rolled over to the
downside we've printed a lower high
we've come down into this previous
structure support level on a four hour
time frame there is
a structure in here and we have this
50-day
ema which i've mentioned many times
in my previous videos analyzing bitcoin
that this would be an important level
that was likely
to see a big bounce off it well we got
that big bounce
and i was watching this day as it
printed and i thought wow i actually
thought when this
candle was at its high the body so this
was a big fat green candle
i thought geez we might actually break
out of 40k
because that was a lot of momentum
picking up and i thought if we could
close at the higher that day
there was a potential we could see trend
continuation out of this market and go
even higher
but since that day closes a big bearish
wick that has
all my alarm bells ringing i'm no longer
expecting this market to
continue in trend to the upside anytime
soon
of course i am expecting it to sometime
at some point
but it could take another two or three
years the same way
this current rally took back when 20k
became resistance
so personally now i'm being very
conservative with my crypto positions
all coins behave a little bit
differently when this happens quite
often they can see another
a rally as people take profit on their
bitcoin and move into alts
i don't think we've seen the end of the
alt rally just yet so i'm still bullish
on all coins
but bitcoin i'm no longer bullish i am
not necessarily bearish but i'm
certainly expecting this consolidation
to continue i see no reason why it
wouldn't
but in the medium term these are the
levels you need to be paying attention
to
30k if we can break and close below this
low
that's obviously a very bad sign and if
you're long
it's a good time to get out if you
haven't already this 50 ema
could give a early warning of that
happening if we can start trading below
this 50 ema
uh we could see a breakdown so be
careful of that if price action does
close below the 50 ema that's something
that should concern you if you're
long on this market and alternatively if
we do get that
steam come back into the market keep an
eye on these highs if we get a double
top
up here and the market rolls over we get
another big red day
after testing this high if you're long
i'd be getting out of the market
and just waiting wait and see what
happens worst case scenario you can buy
back in as a
on a break of these highs at 42k worst
worst case scenario
you stay in the trade and we see a
gigantic retracement back to
these other structure levels potentially
24k
or maybe even 20k i am expecting 20k
to potentially act as very strong
support
since it was very strong resistance in
the past but you don't want to be
holding on your position
from being a profit up here in the 40s
high 30s and low 40s you don't want to
hold your position back down to 20k
if you can avoid it better to take your
profit while the markets are good
and then buy back in when panic sets in
which it will eventually
and that panic will lead to a nice
discount on this long-term
market this long-term trend and so
that's what i'm personally doing
on this market i'm not telling you how
to trade but that's how i would trade
bitcoin going
forward and i'm already flat on my
bitcoin positions
being extra conservative with my old
coin positions not taking any chances
here i've been burned before back in
2017 2018
i held onto my positions far too long i
got too emotionally involved
but i learned a lot of lessons from that
experience and i refused to go through
that again
and so now i'm letting price action make
the calls not my
greed or fear next up the second last
market i want to look at just really
quickly
is a stock that i put a trade on uh two
weeks ago
nova vaxx so this is a stock that
caught my eye when i was reading
australian financial news
i learned that the australian government
has contracted nova vacs
to issue several million vaccines to
australia
if their trials were successful now i
did a bit of research on this
stock this company and i realized that
in the past they've done quite well
throughout pandemics they know what
they're doing they're a smart company a
lot of smart people working there
and they quite often come up with
successful vaccines for these pandemics
that wasn't the only thing that informed
my decision to buy this market
there were other reasons such as the
fact that we were
on this daily chart we were trading
above the 50 ema and
we'd made this double bottom down here
followed by this nice
big one two three move we were holding
the lows
bouncing off this 50 ema we had
a flag pattern forming in here
you can draw this any number of ways but
this is undeniably a flag pattern
obviously the pandemic is a tragedy for
a lot of people
but i'm a trader i remove my emotions
from trading
it doesn't hurt anyone for me to trade
this market and so i saw an opportunity
here and i went for it
i went long after we had this third
bounce off this ema
i had a pretty tight stop loss because i
knew that if we got back below these
lows
i was wrong on my thesis so i had quite
a tight stop-loss here
my target was at the previous swing high
up here at around 182
and that provided a nice two-to-one risk
reward
but i didn't just trade one position i
have two positions on this
market one with a fixed take profit just
in case we tested this level and rolled
right over
and one that i'm trailing my stop loss
on and so we pretty much blew straight
through this level last friday this
company came out with a report that
their vaccine was
i think it was 89 effective on
um treating covert something like that
really good results for their
product their testing and if i turn on
volume we had a
huge volume spike here this all happened
in the pre-market never go down to a
one-hour chart
all this buying happened in the
pre-market we gapped up massively
broke out of this zone and we came back
down to test it
it acted as support so that's a very
good sign for this market
i'll be trailing my stop-loss on my
second position somewhere below 170.
just in case we do get a gap fill which
isn't uncommon in stock market but i'm
not expecting that on this
particular stock because in the past
especially the recent past
whenever we've gapped up on large volume
we've continued to run
to the upside and if this company's
vaccine
works that's a pretty big deal they're
going to be making a lot of money in the
year or two to come
and so there's a strong potential for a
gap and run here and that's what i'm
waiting on i'll just train on my
stop-loss if that happens
i did a little bit of fib analysis here
the next structure level
that this market has to move towards is
up here on the weekly chart i could move
this zone all the way down to there even
but i'm expecting it to i'm expecting
momentum to hold on this market given
the circumstances
i've covered look at the size of that
weekly candle close
i think we're going to see continuation
to the upside i think there's at least
another 30 percent
profit in this market at least 20
percent
maybe 30 on the cards in the months to
come and so i'm just going to hold my
position on this one
let it run see what happens notice that
on this daily chart
we have this swing low to this swing
high
the fibonacci extension for this move
gives a 1 6 1 8 extension
right on this 283 roughly level
which if i look left all the way back to
2015
is where the bodies of this stock closed
on this daily chart
so that's the level i'm looking for
potentially
when if and when price action gets into
this red zone
i'll become conservative with my
trailing stop
i'll start tightening it but i'm
expecting price action to get all the
way up to these bodies
and if it does i'll keep a keen eye on
what happens
what price action patterns print and if
it doesn't it doesn't matter i've
already made
double my risk on my first position and
i'm likely to make double my risk
at least on my second position so this
was a profitable successful trade i'm
happy with that and this is my favorite
this is my favorite
time as a trader so when you catch a
nice big winner like this
all my risk is off the table and i'm
just playing with
the market's money now so there's no
emotion as long as i don't get greedy
and i just stick to my rules
i can't lose here there are only two
possibilities now i either make
a good amount of money or a really good
amount of money
and so now i'll just wait and see what
happens so that's it for novavax
uh final market i want to have a quick
look at is the dollar index us dollar
index
so this thing for lack of a better term
is in a downtrend so the us dollar is
weak it has been weak
um pretty much was for quite a while now
it's been weak
since uh mid 2020. we broke down here
we've had lower highs lower highs we had
a potential reversal
situation occur here but it lacked
follow through so this one
two three move but then we trickled back
down another one two three move to the
downside
pretty much a head and shoulders pattern
and then we've rolled over
and now we're making lower highs lower
lows
so at present this market is retesting
this previous lower high so this is how
i'm reading this market
we had a impulsive move down retracement
another impulsive move down
retracement another impulsive move down
until
this index can break and close above
this previous swing high this bearish
trend is still intact and we are likely
more likely to continue lower than we
are to reverse so the next couple of
weeks is going to be key for the us
dollar and if you don't know this
dollar index currency index tracks the
us dollar strength across
all of the major forex markets so if
it's weak it indicates
broad us dollar weakness which is
bullish for bitcoin bullish for gold
and obviously bullish for other
currencies so this is a key indicator
uh this could give us a pre warning to a
potential bitcoin sell-off
or a gold break down to the downside if
we get that one two three
follow through breaking close above this
50 ema that could
signal at least short-term u.s dollar
strength
and that really the next level that is
likely to push this market lower
is all the way up here at these previous
swing lows in here so this
market is one to keep an eye on in the
weeks to come
this red zone here is the zone i'm
looking at if we cannot hold this red
zone
then u.s strength is going to come back
in us dollar strength
and that'll be an important thing to
keep an eye on
in certain markets like the bitcoin
and gold markets as well as a lot of
these currency pairs
pound dollar for example could see a big
sell-off from this level if that us
dollar breaks out to the upside and
eurodollar could see a big
breakdown because there's not a lot of
um support here until all the way back
down here at around 195.
119.5 or 1.19 and a half cents
but anyway that's it for this market
analysis this has already gone longer
than i wanted to
but i hope you found that interesting
and enlightening in the week to come
i hope this can help inspire you to come
up with your own trading strategies
around structure and just inspire you to
learn how to read price action it's an
incredibly useful skill
i can't remember the last time i was
stressed as a trader since i mastered
this skill
well since i learned this skill i've got
a long way to go before i
truly master it if ever i don't think
it's potentially even possible
to master the markets but you can master
a method
of reading price action and that will
reduce any uncertainty you have
and significantly boost your confidence
because there's never a time where you
don't know what to do
you don't need to know where the markets
are headed next all you need to know
is what you're going to do if certain
things unfold
but that's it for today's video let's
have a quick look at the economic
calendar
it's looking like it's going to be a
pretty volatile week this week there's a
lot of
high impact news events coming out for
us dollar
pound and even the aussie dollar we have
we have our interest rate statement
coming out so keep an eye on aussie
dollar
us dollar pairs pound dollar pairs
especially pound dollar pairs
it's a lot of news here for the pound
we've got the infamous non-farm
employment change coming that could send
the us dollar a little bit loopy
potentially
so be safe out there manage your risk
conservatively
and be ready to take advantage of any
opportunities that pop up because there
could be some really nice trading
opportunities
depending on how this fundamental data
plays out so that's it for this week
thanks for watching as always please
leave your feedback
whether you loved or hated this video
just let me know what you think so that
i can
adjust my process going forward for
these videos
at the moment i'm just speaking about
whatever comes to mind but if you'd like
to see a more structured approach to
this
or you'd like me to spend more time
covering specific markets just let me
know
happy to adapt these videos to your
requests that's all i have to say take
care guys good luck with your trading
and i'll see you in the next video peace
[Music]
you